Considering threshold effects in the long-run equilibrium in a vector error correction model: An application to the German apple market
AbstractWe propose a three-step procedure to estimate a regime-dependent vector error correction model (VECM). In this model, not only the short-run adjustment process towards equilibrium is non-linear, as in threshold VECM and Markov switching VECM frameworks, but the long-run equilibrium relationship itself can also display threshold-type non-linearity. The proposed approach is unique in explicitly testing the null hypothesis of linear cointegration against the alternative of threshold cointegration based on the Gonzalo AND PITARAKIS (2006) test. The model is applied to apple price data on wholesale markets in Hamburg and Munich, using the share of domestic apples in total wholesale trade as the threshold variable. We identify four price transmission regimes characterized by different equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment processes. This proposed approach is particularly suitable for capturing irregular seasonal threshold effects in price transmission typical for fresh fruits and vegetables.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 44247.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
threshold cointegration; spatial price transmission; vector error correction model; Marketing;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meyer, Jochen, 2004.
"Measuring market integration in the presence of transaction costs--a threshold vector error correction approach,"
Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 327-334, December.
- Meyer, Jochen, 2003. "Measuring Market Integration In The Presence Of Transaction Costs - A Threshold Vector Error Correction Approach," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25869, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Gonzalo, J. & Lee, T.H., 1995.
"Pitfalls in Testing for Long Run Relationships,"
38, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992.
"Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
RCER Working Papers
335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Kelvin Balcombe & Alastair Bailey & Jonathan Brooks, 2007. "Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 308-323.
- Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
- Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen and Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
- Goetz, Linde & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2007.
"Asymmetric Price Transmission In The Israeli Citrus Export Sector In The Aftermath Of Liberalization,"
47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007
7594, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
- von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Goetz, Linde, 2007. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Israeli Citrus Export Sector in the Aftermath of Liberalization," 103rd Seminar, April 23-25, 2007, Barcelona, Spain 9385, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Chavas, Jean-Paul & Mehta, Aashish, 2002.
"Price Dynamics in a Vertical Sector: The Case of Butter,"
Staff Paper Series
452, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
- Jean-Paul Chavas & Aashish Mehta, 2004. "Price Dynamics in a Vertical Sector: The Case of Butter," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1078-1093.
- Jesus Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2006.
"Threshold effects in cointegrating relationships,"
Economics Working Papers
we20060621, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
- Gonzalo, J. & Pitarakis, J., 2005. "Threshold effects in cointegrating relationships," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0506, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
- Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001.
"Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Piggott, Nicholas E., 1999. "Spatial Market Integration In The Presence Of Threshold Effects," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21489, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Richard Tiffin & P. J. Dawson, 2000. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the farm-retail price spread for lamb," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(10), pages 1281-1286.
- John Baffes & Bruce Gardner, 2003. "The transmission of world commodity prices to domestic markets under policy reforms in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 159-180.
- M. R. Barassi & A. Ghoshray, 2007. "Structural Change and Long-run Relationships between US and EU Wheat Export Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 76-90, 02.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2008. "Price transmission on the Hungarian milk market," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44175, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 85th Annual Conference, April 18-20, 2011, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 108943, Agricultural Economics Society.
- Amikuzuno, Joseph & Donkor, Samuel, 2012. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2010. "Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 687-693, May.
- Mann, Janelle M, 2013. "Is there a Global Relationship Across Crude Oil Benchmarks?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border effects on spatial price transmission between fresh tomato markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any case for promoting trans-border trade in West Africa?," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? â Prospects for Trade and Growth 9, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
- Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Falkowski, Jan & Ferto, Imre, 2010. "Milk Market Integration between Hungary and Poland," 84th Annual Conference, March 29-31, 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland 91809, Agricultural Economics Society.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.