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Considering threshold effects in the long-run equilibrium in a vector error correction model: An application to the German apple market

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  • Goetz, Linde
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan

Abstract

We propose a three-step procedure to estimate a regime-dependent vector error correction model (VECM). In this model, not only the short-run adjustment process towards equilibrium is non-linear, as in threshold VECM and Markov switching VECM frameworks, but the long-run equilibrium relationship itself can also display threshold-type non-linearity. The proposed approach is unique in explicitly testing the null hypothesis of linear cointegration against the alternative of threshold cointegration based on the Gonzalo AND PITARAKIS (2006) test. The model is applied to apple price data on wholesale markets in Hamburg and Munich, using the share of domestic apples in total wholesale trade as the threshold variable. We identify four price transmission regimes characterized by different equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment processes. This proposed approach is particularly suitable for capturing irregular seasonal threshold effects in price transmission typical for fresh fruits and vegetables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 44247.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44247

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Keywords: threshold cointegration; spatial price transmission; vector error correction model; Marketing;

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  1. Meyer, Jochen, 2004. "Measuring market integration in the presence of transaction costs--a threshold vector error correction approach," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 327-334, December.
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  20. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2008. "Price transmission on the Hungarian milk market," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44175, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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Cited by:
  1. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 85th Annual Conference, April 18-20, 2011, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 108943, Agricultural Economics Society.
  2. Amikuzuno, Joseph & Donkor, Samuel, 2012. "Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2010. "Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 687-693, May.
  4. Mann, Janelle M, 2013. "Is there a Global Relationship Across Crude Oil Benchmarks?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Amikuzuno, Joseph, 2011. "Border effects on spatial price transmission between fresh tomato markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any case for promoting trans-border trade in West Africa?," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 9, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  6. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Falkowski, Jan & Ferto, Imre, 2010. "Milk Market Integration between Hungary and Poland," 84th Annual Conference, March 29-31, 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland 91809, Agricultural Economics Society.

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