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Reform der EU-Milchmarktpolitik bei instabilen Weltmärkten

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  • Grams, Michael
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    Abstract

    The article examines the market and welfare effects of the current CAP reform and further policy options on the EU dairy market. The main focus is the influence of unstable world markets and the uncertainty it generates in policy analysis which has been widely neglected. The simulations of a stochastic dairy market model reveal that the considered policy options affect the impact of world market instabilities on the EU dairy market. Thus, not only a changing level of producer price or revenues can be expected, but also a changing degree of instability. Policy making without taking such instability changes into account may lead to undesired effects and, finally, could undermine the realisation of policy objectives. Also, the evaluation of the welfare effects of the policy options is more sophisticated than in a deterministic examination. With respect to the assessment of the CAP reform the simulations show that its impact on the EU dairy market instability as well as on the uncertainty of the welfare effects depends crucially on whether the quota is binding or not.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics in its journal German Journal of Agricultural Economics.

    Volume (Year): 54 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97212

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    Related research

    Keywords: CAP; dairy market; milk quota system; partial equilibrium model; uncertainty; stochastic simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries;

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    1. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Cox, Thomas L. & Jesse, Edward, 1998. "Spatial allocation and the shadow pricing of product characteristics," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Anderson, Kym & Tyers, Rodney, 1984. "European Community Grain and Meat Policies: Effects on International Prices, Trade and Welfare," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 11(4), pages 367-94.
    3. Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache & Jean-Paul Chavas & Tom Cox & Vincent Réquillart, 2002. "EU Dairy Policy Reform and Future WTO Negotiations: a Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 233-257.
    4. Herrmann, Roland & Schmitz, Peter Michael, 1984. "Stabilizing Producers' Revenue by Fixing Agricultural Prices within the EC?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 11(4), pages 395-414.
    5. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Cox, Thomas L. & Jesse, Edward, 1998. "Spatial allocation and the shadow pricing of product characteristics," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(1), January.
    6. Z Bouamra Mechemache & V Réquillart, 2000. "Analysis of EU dairy policy reform," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 409-430, December.
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