IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/vxxviy2019i1(618)p51-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is real depreciation or more government deficit expansionary? The case of Macedonia

Author

Listed:
  • Yu HSING

    (Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, Louisiana, USA)

Abstract

The paper finds that real depreciation of the denar reduces real GDP and that more government deficit spending as a percent of GDP raises real GDP. In addition, a lower world real interest rate, a higher lagged world real income, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation would increase real GDP. It suggests that the negative impact of real depreciation such as higher import costs and domestic inflation and less international capital inflows dominates the positive impact of real depreciation such as more exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu HSING, 2019. "Is real depreciation or more government deficit expansionary? The case of Macedonia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(618), S), pages 51-60, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxvi:y:2019:i:1(618):p:51-60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1374.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1374&rid=134
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nasir SELIMI, & Valdrina SELIMI, 2017. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate On Economic Growth In The Republic Of Macedonia," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 6(3), pages 1-8, august.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Zsoka Koczan, 2015. "Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in the Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition," IMF Working Papers 2015/172, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Tešić, Aleksandra & Ilić, Dragan & Đelić, Anastazija Tanja, 2014. "Consequences Of Fiscal Deficit And Public Debt In Financing The Public Sector," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation, and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 530-549, August.
    7. Meriem Bouchoucha, 2015. "The Euro Effect on Eurozone Exports," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 399-418, September.
    8. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    10. Aneta Krstevska, 2015. "Monetary Policy Objectives During the Crisis: An Overview of Selected Southeast European Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(1), pages 35-46.
    11. Pavle Petrović & Zorica Mladenović, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Frequency of Price Adjustment across Different Inflation Regimes," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 409-427, September.
    12. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.
    13. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    14. Fatmir Besimi, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate Stability in a Small and Open Economy: The Case of the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2004-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    15. Pavle Petrović & Mirjana Gligorić, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-curve Effect," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(1), pages 23-41, March.
    16. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    17. Besnik Fetai, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Transition Economies: The Case of Republic of Macedonia," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 309-324, November.
    18. Kim, Yoonbai & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2007. "An empirical assessment of currency devaluation in East Asian countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-283, March.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Magda Kandil, 2002. "Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 69-82.
    20. Jovanovic, Branimir, 2009. "Should the Macedonian denar be devalued? Some evidence from the trade equations," SEER Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 12(3), pages 339-368.
    21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:agr:journl:v:1(618):y:2019:i:1(618):p:51-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yu Hsing, 2020. "Impacts of Real Depreciation and Appreciation on Aggregate Output in Taiwan," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 123-130, March.
    3. Yu Hsing & Antoinette S Phillips & Carl Phillips & Yun-Chen Morgan, 2019. "Does Peso Depreciation or More Government Debt Affect Aggregate Output? The Case of Chile," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(1), pages 70-75.
    4. Yu Hsing & Minh Q. Huynh, 2019. "Effects of Depreciation and Appreciation of the Vietnamese Dong on Aggregate Output," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 45-56, June.
    5. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Contractionary? The Case of South Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1951-1958.
    6. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2007. "Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 665-689, December.
    7. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
    8. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley & Luis F. Cabrera Castellanos, 2004. "Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo: el caso de Nicaragua," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 407-418, octubre-d.
    9. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    10. Weymark, Diana N., 2004. "Economic structure, policy objectives, and optimal interest rate policy at low inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-51, March.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    13. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Who believes in the Taylor principle? Evidence from the Livingston survey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 96-98.
    15. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    16. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Wealth and Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2173-2213.
    17. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    18. Akbar, Muhammad & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2021. "Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 574-600.
    19. Ayşegül Ladin SÜMER, 2020. "Optimal Taylor rule in the new era central banking perspective," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 159-170, Spring.
    20. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    21. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    22. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:125-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 10, pages 487-546, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxvi:y:2019:i:1(618):p:51-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.