Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-curve Effect
AbstractThis paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen’s and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.
Volume (Year): 57 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/
Exchange rate and trade balance; J-curve; Cointegration; Autoregressive distributed lag approach.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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