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Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Herbert S. Buscher
  • Eva Dettmann
  • Marco Sunder
  • Dirk Trocka

Abstract

We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009–2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch. Comment by Hilmar Schneider.

Suggested Citation

  • Herbert S. Buscher & Eva Dettmann & Marco Sunder & Dirk Trocka, 2009. "Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 60(Supplemen), pages 55-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v60_y2009_is_q5_p55-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Heckman, 2011. "Policies to foster human capital," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 3, pages 73-137.
    2. Reinberg, Alexander & Hummel, Markus, 2002. "Zur langfristigen Entwicklung des qualifikationsspezifischen Arbeitskräfteangebots und -bedarfs in Deutschland : empirische Befunde und aktuelle Projektionsergebnisse (On the long-term development of ," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 35(4), pages 580-600.
    3. Kubis, Alexander & Schneider, Lutz, 2007. "„Sag mir, wo die Mädchen sind ...“ Regionale Analyse des Wanderungsverhaltens junger Frauen," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 13(8), pages 298-307.
    4. Beekman, T.B.J. & Dekker, R. & de Grip, A. & Heijke, J.A.M., 1989. "An explanation of the educational structure of occupations," ROA Working Paper 3E, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    5. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Bernd Meyer & Christian Lutz & Peter Schnur & Gerd Zika, 2007. "National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-55.
    7. Buscher, Herbert S. & Dettmann, Eva & Schmeißer, Christian & Trocka, Dirk & Sunder, Marco, 2009. "Entwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs in Thüringen bis 2015," IWH-Sonderhefte 2/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva Dettmann & Jutta Günther, 2013. "Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? Assessing Empirical Effects Using Matching Techniques," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(IV), pages 405-443, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic change; labor demand for high skilled workers; labor force forecast; vocational training;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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