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European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)

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Author Info
Emilie Alberola
Julien Chevallier

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Abstract

The price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) has been declining at far lower levels than expected during Phase I (2005-2007). Previous literature identifies among its main explanations over-allocation concerns, early abatement efforts in 2005, and possibly decreasing abatement costs in 2006. We advocate low allowance prices may also be explained by banking restrictions between 2007 and 2008. Based on a Hotelling-CAPM analysis, we provide statistical evidence that the French and Polish decisions to ban banking contribute to the explanation of low EUA Phase I prices. Besides, we provide the first rigorous empirical verification that the cost-of-carry relationship between EUA spot and futures prices for delivery during Phase II does not hold after the enforcement of the inter-period banking restrictions. This situation may be interpreted as a sacrifice of the temporal flexibility offered to industrials in Phase I to correct design inefficiencies, and achieve an efficient price pattern in Phase II.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): 30 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 51-80
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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2009v30-03-a03

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F0 - International Economics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. A. Denny Ellerman & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2005. "The Efficiency and Robustness of Allowance Banking in the U.S. Acid Rain Program," Working Papers 0505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Hoppe, Christian & Schleich, Joachim & Seifert, Stefan, 2004. "The role of auctions and forward markets in the EU," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-59, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  3. Timothy N. Cason & Lata Gangadharan, 2004. "Emissions Variability in Tradable Permit Markets with Imperfect Enforcement and Banking," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 917, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stuart Mestelman & Andrew Muller, 1997. "Emissions Trading with Shares and Coupons when Control over Discharges is Uncertain," McMaster Experimental Economics Laboratory Publications 1997-01, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Paul Leiby & Jonathan Rubin, 2001. "Intertemporal Permit Trading for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(3), pages 229-256, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Schleich, Joachim & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Hoppe, Christian & Seifert, Stefan, 2006. "Banning banking in EU emissions trading?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-120, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2006. "On Pollution Permit Banking and Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 283-302, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 511-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break," Working Papers 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Juan Pablo Montero, 2002. "The Temporal Efficiency of SO2 Emissions Trading," Documentos de Trabajo 225, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Grubb, M. & Neuhoff, K., 2006. "Allocation and competitiveness in the EU emissions trading scheme: policy overview," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0645, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521023894 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark, 2001. "Testing the Null of Stationarity in the Presence of a Structural Break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Tobias Kronenberg, 2008. "Should We Worry About The Failure Of The Hotelling Rule?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 774-793, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. repec:mop:credwp:09.05.84 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  2. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoît Chèze, 2009. "The EU ETS: CO2 prices drivers during the learning experience (2005-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00389916_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Working Papers halshs-00387286_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  4. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers halshs-00405709_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  5. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers hal-00419339_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  6. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  7. repec:mop:credwp:09.07.85 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  8. Julien Chevallier & Johanna Etner & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2008. "Bankable Pollution Permits under Uncertainty and Optimal Risk Management Rules: Theory and Empirical Evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-25, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  9. Julien Chevallier, 2009. "Intertemporal Emissions Trading and Market Power: A Dominant Firm with Competitive Fringe Model," Working Papers halshs-00388207_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

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