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Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk

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  • Moritz Schularick
  • Lucas ter Steege
  • Felix Ward

Abstract

Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial crisis risk. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since the nineteenth century, we show that discretionary leaning against the wind policies during credit and asset price booms are more likely to trigger crises than prevent them.

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Schularick & Lucas ter Steege & Felix Ward, 2021. "Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 199-214, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:3:y:2021:i:2:p:199-214
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200310
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    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Collard, Fabrice & Boissay, Frédéric & Galì, Jordi & Manea, Cristina, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises," TSE Working Papers 21-1277, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Apr 2023.
    3. Gabriel Jiménez & Dmitry Kuvshinov & José-Luis Peydró & Björn Richter, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Crises: New Evidence from History and Administrative Data," Working Papers 1378, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Frederic Boissay & Claudio Borio & Cristina Leonte & Ilhyock Shim, 2023. "Prudential policy and financial dominance: exploring the link," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    5. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    6. Cezar, Rafael & Monnet, Eric, 2023. "Capital controls and foreign reserves against external shocks: Combined or alone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Elgin, Ceyhun & Yalaman, Abdullah & Yasar, Sezer & Basbug, Gokce, 2021. "Economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of central bank independence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    9. Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2022. "Goldilocks: American precious metals and the Rise of the West," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-063/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Feb 2023.
    10. Yao Chen & Felix Ward, 2022. "Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Euro Area Growing Apart?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-031/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir H. Silva, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Effects: The Role of Risk and Heterogeneity," Working Papers 341, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    12. Thore Kockerols & Erling Motzfeldt Kravik & Yasin Mimir, 2021. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Paper 2021/11, Norges Bank.
    13. Bochmann, Paul & Dieckelmann, Daniel & Fahr, Stephan & Ruzicka, Josef, 2023. "Financial stability considerations in the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2870, European Central Bank.
    14. Gebauer, Stefan & Mazelis, Falk, 2023. "Macroprudential regulation and leakage to the shadow banking sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    17. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Benati, Luca, 2023. "Exploring the trade-off between leaning against credit and stabilizing economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    19. F. Boissay & F. Collard & Jordi Galí & C. Manea, 2021. "Monetary policy and endogenous financial crises," Economics Working Papers 1810, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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