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Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks

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  • James Feyrer
  • Jay Shambaugh

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Exogenous tax increases in the United States (from Romer and Romer 2010) are only partially offset by changes in domestic private savings, and only a small amount is absorbed by increased domestic investment (contra Feldstein and Horioka 1980). Almost half the change in taxes is transmitted abroad through a change in the US current account. Other countries experience decreases in current accounts and increases in investment in response to exogenous US tax increases. We cannot reject symmetric responses across countries with different currency regimes and levels of development. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E62, F32, F42)

Suggested Citation

  • James Feyrer & Jay Shambaugh, 2012. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 95-114, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:95-114
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.4.2.95
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    1. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2018. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 428-439, April.
    2. Rishabh Aggarwal & Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2023. "Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 325-412.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2010/121, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Antoine Goujard, 2017. "Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 219-267, June.
    5. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "External imbalances and macroeconomic policy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 53-70, April.
    6. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    7. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2014. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100408, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Kodjovi Mawulikplimi Eklou & Marcelin Joanis & Patrick Richard, 2015. "A "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor" Effect in Public Debt? Evidence from cross-border spillover of fiscal consolidations," Cahiers de recherche 15-11, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    9. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1264-1283.
    10. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo.
    11. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2020. "Twin Deficits in Developing Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Attiya Y. Javid & Muhammad Javid & Umiama Arif, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Current Account Dynamics in the Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 577-592.
    13. Philip Lane, 2010. "Some Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Financial Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp334, IIIS.
    14. Hayo, Bernd & Mierzwa, Sascha, 2023. "The effect of legislated tax changes on the trade balance: Empirical evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "Spillovers from Tax Shocks to the Euro Area," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202133, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2017. "Bilateral Tax Treaties and GDP Comovement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 292-319, May.
    17. S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fatás & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
    18. James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote, 2011. "Did the Stimulus Stimulate? Real Time Estimates of the Effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," NBER Working Papers 16759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Madeline Hanson & Daniela Hauser & Romanos Priftis, 2021. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes," Staff Working Papers 21-41, Bank of Canada.
    20. Gancho Todorov Ganchev, 2010. "The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 357-377.
    21. Yusuf D. Bulus & Nnaemeka E. Ohaegbu & Olufunmilayo S. Tajudeen & Chinecherem D. Okoronkwo & Danjuma S. Yusuf, 2023. "Fiscal Deficit Expansion and External Sector Imbalance in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(5), pages 1687-1703, May.
    22. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    23. Philip Lane, 2010. "External Imbalances and Fiscal Policy," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp314, IIIS.
    24. Philip R. Lane, 2011. "External Imbalances and Macroeconomic Policy in New Zealand," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp376, IIIS.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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