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Content
2026
2025
- 102538 Global Institute presentation: Steve Kamin on the dollar’s status
by Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne
- 102537 China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
by J. Scott Davis & Brendan Kelly
- 102285 China debt overhang leads to rising share of ‘zombie’ firms
by J. Scott Davis & Brendan Kelly
- 102282 A simple measure of monetary policy transmission
by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 102179 Consumption concentration may be up, adding slightly to economic fragility
by Benjamin Hoham & Fang Yang
- 102178 Expiring solar tax credits shine a light on benefit inequities
by Cameron Barrett
- 102176 Transfer payments, household savings play key roles in growing U.S. deficit
by J. Scott Davis & Lillian Derr
- 102075 Batteries, solar help keep the lights on in Texas but more needed
by Garrett Golding & Reid Taylor
- 101975 Mexico’s economy surprises to the upside, but outlook is weak
by Jesus Cañas & Diego Morales-Burnett & Luis Torres
- 101971 Rush for U.S. lithium production encounters tough economics
by Michael D. Plante & Isabelle Tseng
- 101920 Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
by Anton Cheremukhin
- 101902 Network structure of money markets and firms affects policy transmission
by Hugo De Vere & Matthew McCormick
- 101900 Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
by Rosie Levy
- 101899 Central bank swaps offer dollar crisis lifeline to non-U.S. banks
by Philippe Bacchetta & J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop
- 101894 What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent?
by Tyler Atkinson & Jim Dolmas
- 101893 Options for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target interest rate
by Lorie Logan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 101694 Are trade deficits good or bad, and can tariffs reduce them?
by Enrique Martínez García & Kei-Mu Yi
- 101580 Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks
by Enrique Martínez García & Efthymios Pavlidis
- 101540 Grading Texas education requires a closer look behind the numbers
by Jackie Balanovsky & Isabel Dhillon & Pia M. Orrenius & Guhan Venkatu
- 101538 Renewable energy jobs surge, though data differ on where and by how much
by Garrett Golding & Claire Jeffress & Xiaohan Zhang
- 101537 Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations
by Isaiah Spellman & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 101536 With few firms advising life insurers, is financial stability at risk?
by Lillian Han & Ali Ozdagli & Dylan Ryfe
- 101525 Falling rates no assurance of homeowner refinancing binge
by Grace Ozor & Xiaohan Zhang
- 101521 How sensitive are interest rates to higher federal debt?
by Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Sarah Zubairy
- 101409 Accounting for interest rate risk: Matching Fed assets to liabilities
by Hugo De Vere & Srini Ramaswamy & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 101403 How do reciprocal deposit networks interact with deposit insurance?
by Christine Docherty & Alessio Saretto
- 101402 Texas firms open to AI as tariff work-around strategy
by Robert Leigh & Mariam Yousuf
- 101315 How sensitive is the Treasury cash-futures basis trade to funding condition shifts?
by Hugo De Vere & Matthew McCormick & Srini Ramaswamy & Seth Searls
- 101232 Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
by Pia M. Orrenius & Grace Ozor & Madeline Zavodny & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 101231 Advances in AI will boost productivity, living standards over time
by Lillian Derr & Mark A. Wynne
- 100073 Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
by Lillian Derr & Mark A. Wynne
- 100011 Has the Beige Book become disconnected from economic data?
by Laila Assanie & Ethan Dixon & Emily Kerr
- 99961 U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
by Enrique Martínez García & Michael Sposi
- 99896 Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
by Prithvi Kalkunte & Mariam Yousuf
- 99847 Monetary policy implementation and the consolidated government balance sheet
by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 99783 Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
by Jesus Cañas & Diego Morales-Burnett
- 99758 Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
by Alexander Chudik & Ron Mau
- 99726 Even a ‘miracle’ needs a safety net: Texas leads in growth, lags elsewhere
by Isabel Dhillon & Pia M. Orrenius
- 99655 Decline in bank stress likely to continue as interest rates normalize
by Ben Munyan & Anthony Murphy & Dylan Ryfe
- 99637 Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
by J. Scott Davis
- 99636 Proportionate margining for repo transactions
by R. Jay Kahn & Matthew McCormick
- 99566 Geopolitical oil price risk not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations
by Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter
- 99565 Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook
by Tyler Atkinson & Ron Mau
- 99521 Texas economic sentiment upbeat amid price pressures, uncertainty
by Isabel Brizuela & Emily Kerr & Robert Leigh
- 99476 Solar, battery capacity saved the Texas grid last summer; an uncertain future awaits
by Garrett Golding
- 99408 As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
by Lillian Derr & Mark A. Wynne
2024
2023
- 97517 Texas economic activity, job growth weaken as 2023 closes
by Diego Morales-Burnett & Luis Torres
- 97516 State and local governments rake in surpluses after pandemic
by Ron Mau & Fang Yang
- 97388 Reciprocal deposit networks provide means to exceed FDIC’s $250,000 account cap
by Dylan Ryfe & Alessio Saretto
- 97354 Korea, Japan growth experiences suggest China’s economy to slow in next 20 years
by Sewon Hur & Braden Strackman
- 97353 Slowing Texas economy remains on track for a soft landing
by Ana Pranger & Jesse Thompson
- 97352 Texas among states feeling most stressed by inflation
by Aparna Jayashankar & Anthony Murphy
- 97196 How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
by Tyler Atkinson & Alexander W. Richter
- 97162 Record-breaking Texas summer heat tests the grid, ERCOT operations
by Garrett Golding
- 97130 Russian ruble buckles under trade sanctions, declining export earnings
by J. Scott Davis & Kunal Patel
- 97052 Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers chance to recalibrate its size
by Garrett Golding
- 96952 Texas economic activity strengthens despite slowing job growth, greater price resistance
by Diego Morales-Burnett & Pia M. Orrenius & Ana Pranger
- 96930 Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
by Jesus Cañas & Pon Sagnanert & Luis Torres
- 96736 New office buildings rise on Texas skyline despite difficult market
by Laila Assanie & Amy Chapel & Lorenzo Garza & Emily Greenwald & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 96637 Texas natives likeliest to ‘stick’ around, pointing to state’s economic health
by Pia M. Orrenius & Ana Pranger & Madeline Zavodny
- 96605 Policy impact of unexpected Fed rate movements blurred by key information cues
by Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Japji Singh & Jenny Tang
- 96595 Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro
by Alexander Chudik & Anil Kumar
- 96535 Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
by J. Scott Davis & Pon Sagnanert
- 96534 Texas shows signs of slowing; price pressures ease despite buoyant services
by Aparna Jayashankar & Yichen Su
- 96518 Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures
by Tyler Atkinson & Emily Kerr
- 96457 Mexico seeks to solidify rank as top U.S. trade partner, push further past China
by Luis Torres
- 96409 Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
by Enrique Martínez García
- 96393 Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds
by J. Scott Davis
- 96381 Texas economic growth outpaces nation despite persistent downside risks
by Anil Kumar & Ana Pranger
- 96362 Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year
by Tyler Atkinson
- 96242 The connection between banking and sovereign crises
by Sewon Hur
- 96166 Recent growth of professional services jobs favors select Texas counties
by Ana Pranger & Yichen Su
- 96130 Texas economic expansion slows; business outlooks weaken
by Laila Assanie & Prithvi Kalkunte
- 96129 Global energy producer Midland–Odessa seeks economic stability, end to boom-and-bust
by Jesse Thompson
- 95962 COVID-era eviction moratoriums improved financial well-being...while they lasted
by Emily Ryder Perlmeter & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan & Xiaohan Zhang
- 95917 Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
by W. Scott Frame & Matthew McCormick
- 95910 Strong Texas job gains encounter economic uncertainty, signs of slowing
by Jesus Cañas & Aparna Jayashankar
- 95907 Calibrating central bank inflation messages is key to policy success
by Antonella Tutino
- 95846 High-tech hotspot Austin works to solve labor, housing issues
by Pia M. Orrenius & Emily Ryder Perlmeter & Luis Torres
- 95845 Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
by J. Scott Davis & Andrei Zlate
- 95716 Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates
by Lauren Spits & Enrique Martínez García
- 95713 Trade diversion has helped ease the impact of the embargo on Russian oil
by Lutz Kilian & Kunal Patel
- 95672 Dallas Fed, Latin American central banks explore financial stability risks
by W. Scott Frame & Carola Müller & Matias Ossandon Busch
- 95671 Residential solar power shines on, backed by securitized lending
by SungJe Byun & Joe Kneip
- 95669 Texas modestly grows with soft landing likely
by Emily Kerr & Ana Pranger
- 95668 Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects
by Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
- 95522 Tax, transfer programs explain why Western Europeans work less than Americans
by Lei Fang & Fang Yang
- 95521 Texas electrical grid remains vulnerable to extreme weather events
by Garrett Golding
- 95517 High inflation disproportionately hurts low-income households
by Aparna Jayashankar & Anthony Murphy
- 95451 Decentralized finance proposed as alternative to traditional financial services
by Alessio Saretto
2022
- 95413 Existing Low-Rate Mortgages Blunt Impact of Recent Rate Surge
by Xiaoqing Zhou
- 95412 Expanded central clearing would increase Treasury market resilience
by Matthew McCormick & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 95411 Economic outlook weakens as job growth, inflation slow
by Aparna Jayashankar & Prithvi Kalkunte & Luis Torres
- 95410 Blockchain Technology Aims to Expand Role of Digital Transactions on Internet
by Alessio Saretto
- 95238 Diversified San Antonio Confronts Economic Divide Among Youth
by Pia M. Orrenius & Luis Torres
- 95237 Migration to Texas Fills Critical Gaps in Workforce, Human Capital
by Diego Morales-Burnett & Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny
- 95179 Does Employers’ Worker Poaching Explain the Beveridge Curve’s Odd Behavior?
by Anton Cheremukhin
- 95142 Skimming U.S. Housing Froth a Delicate, Daunting Task
by Enrique Martínez García
- 95141 El Paso Aims to End Brain Drain with Global Manufacturing, Higher-Paying Jobs
by Keighton Hines & Luis Torres
- 95140 Texas Economic Outlook Weakens, Price Pressures Persist
by Mytiah Caldwell & Prithvi Kalkunte & Christopher Slijk
- 94956 Diverse, Resilient Houston Looking at Moving Beyond Traditional Energy Base
by Wenhua Di & Jesse Thompson
- 94955 Whose Wages Are Falling Behind the Least amid Surging Inflation?
by Mason Krohn & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy
- 94898 Automakers' Bold Plans for Electric Vehicles Spur Battery Boom
by Michael D. Plante & Jessica Rindels
- 94869 More Workers Find Their Wages Falling Even Further Behind Inflation
by Mason Krohn & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy
- 94868 Mounting Signs Point to a Texas Economic Slowdown
by Pia M. Orrenius & Ana Pranger
- 94849 Biden Student Loan Relief Plan Allows Increased Borrowing, Less Repayment
by Wenhua Di
- 94719 Inflation in Services Likely to Rise Further Despite Slowing Goods Prices
by Tyler Atkinson & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 94685 Shift to Working from Home Diminished Large Cities' Productivity Premium
by Sitian Liu & Yichen Su
- 94667 Vaccines Were Key to Curbing COVID-19 in Europe; Other Measures Also Useful
by Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci
- 94638 Rent Inflation Expected to Accelerate Then Moderate in Mid-2023
by Jim Dolmas & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 94592 Firm Debt Structure Can Mitigate Impact of Uncertainty Shock
by Ali Ozdagli & Sona Shah & Jianlin Wang
- 94572 Signs of Slowdown Growing in Texas; Price Pressures Ease
by Mytiah Caldwell & Yichen Su
- 94543 U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth
by Tyler Atkinson & Victor Wei & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 94490 Fed’s 1994 Rate Aggressiveness Led to Emerging-Market Turmoil; Is This Time Different?
by J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu
- 94487 Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: Donald Kohn on Controlling Inflation, Ukraine Effects, Volcker-Era Lessons
by Enrique Martínez García
- 94486 Initial Unemployment Claims Appear Stable over Past Several Months
by Tyler Atkinson & Victor Wei
- 94392 Texas Economy Retains Strength Despite Weakening Outlooks
by Laila Assanie & Keighton Hines
- 94365 High Fuel Prices in the U.S. May Crimp Oil Demand Soon
by Garrett Golding
- 94284 Russia Counters Sanctions’ Impact with Currency Controls, Averts Crisis (for Now)
by J. Scott Davis & Ippei Fujiwara & Kevin X. D. Huang & Jiao Wang
- 94272 Fed Liquidity Facility Successfully Anchored Commercial Real Estate amid Pandemic
by W. Scott Frame & Steven Manning & Joseph Tracy
- 94229 Russia’s War on Ukraine Will Leave Scars on U.S., World Economies
by Jarod Coulter & Enrique Martínez García
- 94177 Don’t Look to Oil Companies to Lower High Retail Gasoline Prices
by Garrett Golding & Lutz Kilian
- 94098 Capacity Constraints Drive the OPEC+ Supply Gap
by Lutz Kilian & Kunal Patel & Michael D. Plante
- 94097 Commodity Financing Markets Shaken by Russian Invasion; Monitoring for U.S. Financial Stress
by Jill Cetina & Matthew McCormick & Pon Sagnanert
- 94096 Renewable Energy Projects Present Unique Lender Risks, Need for Oversight
by SungJe Byun & Joe Kneip
- 94095 Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations
by J. Scott Davis
- 93895 Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble
by Jarod Coulter & Valerie Grossman & Enrique Martínez García & Peter C.B. Phillips & Shuping Shi
- 93886 Texas Economy Strengthens as Omicron Fades; Costs and Wages Rise Further
by Jesus Cañas & James Lee
- 93885 The Russian Oil Supply Shock of 2022
by Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante
- 93801 Federal Aid Helps Border Keep Pace with Texas Economy During Pandemic Turmoil
by Jesus Cañas & Juliette Coia & Pia M. Orrenius
- 93769 Electric Vehicles Gain Ground but Still Face Price, Range, Charging Constraints
by Sean Howard & Michael D. Plante
- 93768 Real Wages Grew During Two Years of COVID-19 After Controlling for Workforce Composition
by Sean Howard & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy
- 93692 Solar Lights Up Outlook for Renewable Energy in Texas
by Kunal Patel & Michael D. Plante
- 93670 Pace of Texas Economic Growth Slows as Supply-Chain, Staffing Woes Persist
by Juliette Coia & Emily Kerr
- 93669 Minority Depository Institutions Have Vital Role Serving Vulnerable Communities
by Jill Cetina & Kelly Klemme & Michael Perez
- 93668 Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Dallas Conference Explored Housing, Urban Economics
by Chris Cunningham & Jessica Dill & W. Scott Frame & Kristopher Gerardi & Joseph Tracy
- 93666 Nominal GDP Outlook Suggests It's Time to End Monetary Accommodation
by Tyler Atkinson & Evan F. Koenig & Ezra Max
- 93655 How Did Federal Stimulus Recipients Use Their Checks?
by Jonah Danziger & Anthony Murphy
- 93654 A Ban on U.S. Crude Oil Exports Would Not Lower Gasoline Prices at the Pump
by Garrett Golding & Lutz Kilian
2021