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Content
2026
- 103958 Contract design, higher yields make basis trade alternatives attractive
by Hugo De Vere & Matthew McCormick & Srini Ramaswamy
- 103957 What Big Macs tell us about the disconnect between prices and exchange rates
by J. Scott Davis & Ben Kim & Andrei Zlate
- 103912 Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil
by Garrett Golding & Jesse Thompson
- 103911 Tariffs increased in 2025; why did U.S. imports grow?
by Ben Kim & Tucker Smith & Kei-Mu Yi
- 103846 Productivity the key to raising living standards
by Lillian Derr & Mark A. Wynne
- 103845 AI plays a role in weak labor market for college graduates
by Samuel Dodini & Tucker Smith
- 103755 Job postings show early signs of AI automation impact
by Samuel Dodini & Tucker Smith
- 103709 Tokenized deposits could affect bank liquidity, maturity transformation
by Rosie Levy & Srini Ramaswamy
- 103683 Mitigating tariffs via USMCA may have limited 2025 price increases
by Enrique Martínez García & Ron Mau
- 103649 Alternative Trimmed Mean PCE inflation measure better tracked price surge
by Tyler Atkinson & Jim Dolmas & Rebecca Zarutskie
- 103648 Does it matter who finances the government's debt?
by J. Scott Davis & Lillian Derr
- 103618 How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock
by Enrique Martínez García & Ron Mau
- 103564 Tokenized deposits use blockchain structure in traditional banking framework
by Seth Dunbar & Pon Sagnanert & Alessio Saretto & Guhan Venkatu
- 103494 International comparisons show AI effect on productivity
by J. Scott Davis
- 103493 Supplier networks transmit Fed rate moves through economy
by Ali Ozdagli & Michael Weber
- 103469 Supplier networks transmit Fed rate moves through economy
by Ali Ozdagli & Michael Weber
- 103435 Term funding premium: Time is money even absent interest rate risk
by Hugo De Vere & Ipek Ozil & Srini Ramaswamy & Seth Searls
- 103434 U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
by Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter
- 103383 Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk
by Tryg Aanenson & Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles
- 103350 Rising hedge fund leverage affects monetary policy implementation
by R. Jay Kahn & Matthew McCormick
- 103348 Climbing the employment ladder tough when bottom rung is broken
by Anton Cheremukhin & Theresa Rincker
- 103298 Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises
by Alexander Chudik & Enrique Martínez García
- 103295 U.S. housing: Unaffordable to buy, but wealth-building to own
by Enrique Martínez García & Efthymios Pavlidis
- 103262 Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit
by Diego Morales-Burnett & Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Luis Torres
- 103186 What drives mortgage rates and their response to monetary policy changes
by Matthew McCormick & Srini Ramaswamy
- 103184 Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
by Ron Mau & Tucker Smith
- 103086 Implications of the Iran war for U.S. inflation
by Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 103085 Skewness warrants caution as Trimmed Mean PCE inflation eases
by Tyler Atkinson & Jim Dolmas & Rebecca Zarutskie
- 103083 Californians spend less on electricity than Texans despite higher prices
by Cameron Barrett
- 103080 Measures of inflation misalign with pricier home insurance
by Rachel A. Jones & Reid Taylor & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan
- 103007 Options for reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet
by Lorie Logan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 102971 Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue
by Anton Cheremukhin & Daniel J. Wilson & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 102962 Home insurance premiums influence mortgage delinquencies, relocations
by Shan Ge & Stephanie Johnson & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan
- 102957 What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
by Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter
- 102868 Data center boom expected to raise electricity component of PCE inflation
by Owen Kay & Lutz Kilian & Reid Taylor
- 102866 U.S. battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid EV bust
by Adefemi Abimbola & Kunal Patel & Michael D. Plante & Isabelle Tseng
- 102861 AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest
by J. Scott Davis
- 102856 Lessons from the destabilization of inflation in the 1970s
by Lutz Kilian
- 102855 Domestic banks are inelastic providers of marginal funding to repo markets
by Rosie Levy & Matthew McCormick
- 102852 How AI debt financing impacts duration supply and interest rates
by Hugo De Vere & Srini Ramaswamy & Seth Searls
- 102582 Workshop reviews risks to the economy, financial system from third parties
by Amy Chapel & Emma Weiss
- 102573 Utility-scale solar shines in Texas despite tariffs, federal policy changes
by Cameron Barrett & Kunal Patel & Michael D. Plante
- 102544 Real-time house price model shows U.S. housing market firming
by Tryg Aanenson & Erik Andres Escayola & Enrique Martínez García & Efthymios Pavlidis & Iván Payá & Kostas Vasilopoulos
- 102542 New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
by Daniel J. Wilson & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 102539 Young workers’ employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure
by Tyler Atkinson & Shane Yamco
2025
- 102538 Global Institute presentation: Steve Kamin on the dollar’s status
by Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne
- 102537 China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
by J. Scott Davis & Brendan Kelly
- 102285 China debt overhang leads to rising share of ‘zombie’ firms
by J. Scott Davis & Brendan Kelly
- 102282 A simple measure of monetary policy transmission
by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 102179 Consumption concentration may be up, adding slightly to economic fragility
by Benjamin Hoham & Fang Yang
- 102178 Expiring solar tax credits shine a light on benefit inequities
by Cameron Barrett
- 102176 Transfer payments, household savings play key roles in growing U.S. deficit
by J. Scott Davis & Lillian Derr
- 102075 Batteries, solar help keep the lights on in Texas but more needed
by Garrett Golding & Reid Taylor
- 101975 Mexico’s economy surprises to the upside, but outlook is weak
by Jesus Cañas & Diego Morales-Burnett & Luis Torres
- 101971 Rush for U.S. lithium production encounters tough economics
by Michael D. Plante & Isabelle Tseng
- 101920 Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
by Anton Cheremukhin
- 101902 Network structure of money markets and firms affects policy transmission
by Hugo De Vere & Matthew McCormick
- 101900 Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
by Rosie Levy
- 101899 Central bank swaps offer dollar crisis lifeline to non-U.S. banks
by Philippe Bacchetta & J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop
- 101894 What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent?
by Tyler Atkinson & Jim Dolmas
- 101893 Options for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target interest rate
by Lorie Logan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 101694 Are trade deficits good or bad, and can tariffs reduce them?
by Enrique Martínez García & Kei-Mu Yi
- 101580 Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks
by Enrique Martínez García & Efthymios Pavlidis
- 101540 Grading Texas education requires a closer look behind the numbers
by Jackie Balanovsky & Isabel Dhillon & Pia M. Orrenius & Guhan Venkatu
- 101538 Renewable energy jobs surge, though data differ on where and by how much
by Garrett Golding & Claire Jeffress & Xiaohan Zhang
- 101537 Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations
by Isaiah Spellman & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 101536 With few firms advising life insurers, is financial stability at risk?
by Lillian Han & Ali Ozdagli & Dylan Ryfe
- 101525 Falling rates no assurance of homeowner refinancing binge
by Grace Ozor & Xiaohan Zhang
- 101521 How sensitive are interest rates to higher federal debt?
by Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Sarah Zubairy
- 101409 Accounting for interest rate risk: Matching Fed assets to liabilities
by Hugo De Vere & Srini Ramaswamy & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 101403 How do reciprocal deposit networks interact with deposit insurance?
by Christine Docherty & Alessio Saretto
- 101402 Texas firms open to AI as tariff work-around strategy
by Robert Leigh & Mariam Yousuf
- 101315 How sensitive is the Treasury cash-futures basis trade to funding condition shifts?
by Hugo De Vere & Matthew McCormick & Srini Ramaswamy & Seth Searls
- 101232 Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
by Pia M. Orrenius & Grace Ozor & Madeline Zavodny & Xiaoqing Zhou
- 101231 Advances in AI will boost productivity, living standards over time
by Lillian Derr & Mark A. Wynne
- 100073 Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
by Lillian Derr & Mark A. Wynne
- 100011 Has the Beige Book become disconnected from economic data?
by Laila Assanie & Ethan Dixon & Emily Kerr
- 99961 U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
by Enrique Martínez García & Michael Sposi
- 99896 Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
by Prithvi Kalkunte & Mariam Yousuf
- 99847 Monetary policy implementation and the consolidated government balance sheet
by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 99783 Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
by Jesus Cañas & Diego Morales-Burnett
- 99758 Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
by Alexander Chudik & Ron Mau
- 99726 Even a ‘miracle’ needs a safety net: Texas leads in growth, lags elsewhere
by Isabel Dhillon & Pia M. Orrenius
- 99655 Decline in bank stress likely to continue as interest rates normalize
by Ben Munyan & Anthony Murphy & Dylan Ryfe
- 99637 Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
by J. Scott Davis
- 99636 Proportionate margining for repo transactions
by R. Jay Kahn & Matthew McCormick
- 99566 Geopolitical oil price risk not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations
by Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter
- 99565 Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook
by Tyler Atkinson & Ron Mau
- 99521 Texas economic sentiment upbeat amid price pressures, uncertainty
by Isabel Brizuela & Emily Kerr & Robert Leigh
- 99476 Solar, battery capacity saved the Texas grid last summer; an uncertain future awaits
by Garrett Golding
- 99408 As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
by Lillian Derr & Mark A. Wynne
2024
2023
- 97517 Texas economic activity, job growth weaken as 2023 closes
by Diego Morales-Burnett & Luis Torres
- 97516 State and local governments rake in surpluses after pandemic
by Ron Mau & Fang Yang
- 97388 Reciprocal deposit networks provide means to exceed FDIC’s $250,000 account cap
by Dylan Ryfe & Alessio Saretto
- 97354 Korea, Japan growth experiences suggest China’s economy to slow in next 20 years
by Sewon Hur & Braden Strackman
- 97353 Slowing Texas economy remains on track for a soft landing
by Ana Pranger & Jesse Thompson
- 97352 Texas among states feeling most stressed by inflation
by Aparna Jayashankar & Anthony Murphy
- 97196 How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
by Tyler Atkinson & Alexander W. Richter
- 97162 Record-breaking Texas summer heat tests the grid, ERCOT operations
by Garrett Golding
- 97130 Russian ruble buckles under trade sanctions, declining export earnings
by J. Scott Davis & Kunal Patel
- 97052 Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers chance to recalibrate its size
by Garrett Golding
- 96952 Texas economic activity strengthens despite slowing job growth, greater price resistance
by Diego Morales-Burnett & Pia M. Orrenius & Ana Pranger
- 96930 Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
by Jesus Cañas & Pon Sagnanert & Luis Torres
- 96736 New office buildings rise on Texas skyline despite difficult market
by Laila Assanie & Amy Chapel & Lorenzo Garza & Emily Greenwald & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
- 96637 Texas natives likeliest to ‘stick’ around, pointing to state’s economic health
by Pia M. Orrenius & Ana Pranger & Madeline Zavodny
- 96605 Policy impact of unexpected Fed rate movements blurred by key information cues
by Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Japji Singh & Jenny Tang
- 96595 Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro
by Alexander Chudik & Anil Kumar
- 96535 Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
by J. Scott Davis & Pon Sagnanert
- 96534 Texas shows signs of slowing; price pressures ease despite buoyant services
by Aparna Jayashankar & Yichen Su
- 96518 Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures
by Tyler Atkinson & Emily Kerr
- 96457 Mexico seeks to solidify rank as top U.S. trade partner, push further past China
by Luis Torres
- 96409 Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
by Enrique Martínez García
- 96393 Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds
by J. Scott Davis
- 96381 Texas economic growth outpaces nation despite persistent downside risks
by Anil Kumar & Ana Pranger
- 96362 Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year
by Tyler Atkinson
- 96242 The connection between banking and sovereign crises
by Sewon Hur
- 96166 Recent growth of professional services jobs favors select Texas counties
by Ana Pranger & Yichen Su
- 96130 Texas economic expansion slows; business outlooks weaken
by Laila Assanie & Prithvi Kalkunte
- 96129 Global energy producer Midland–Odessa seeks economic stability, end to boom-and-bust
by Jesse Thompson
- 95962 COVID-era eviction moratoriums improved financial well-being...while they lasted
by Emily Ryder Perlmeter & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan & Xiaohan Zhang
- 95917 Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
by W. Scott Frame & Matthew McCormick
- 95910 Strong Texas job gains encounter economic uncertainty, signs of slowing
by Jesus Cañas & Aparna Jayashankar
- 95907 Calibrating central bank inflation messages is key to policy success
by Antonella Tutino
- 95846 High-tech hotspot Austin works to solve labor, housing issues
by Pia M. Orrenius & Emily Ryder Perlmeter & Luis Torres
- 95845 Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
by J. Scott Davis & Andrei Zlate
- 95716 Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates
by Lauren Spits & Enrique Martínez García
- 95713 Trade diversion has helped ease the impact of the embargo on Russian oil
by Lutz Kilian & Kunal Patel
- 95672 Dallas Fed, Latin American central banks explore financial stability risks
by W. Scott Frame & Carola Müller & Matias Ossandon Busch
- 95671 Residential solar power shines on, backed by securitized lending
by Sung Je Byun & Joe Kneip
- 95669 Texas modestly grows with soft landing likely
by Emily Kerr & Ana Pranger
- 95668 Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects
by Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
- 95522 Tax, transfer programs explain why Western Europeans work less than Americans
by Lei Fang & Fang Yang
- 95521 Texas electrical grid remains vulnerable to extreme weather events
by Garrett Golding
- 95517 High inflation disproportionately hurts low-income households
by Aparna Jayashankar & Anthony Murphy
- 95451 Decentralized finance proposed as alternative to traditional financial services
by Alessio Saretto
2022