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Implications of the Iran war for U.S. inflation

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Abstract

Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.

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Handle: RePEc:fip:d00001:103086
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File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0417
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