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Dealing With Randomness in Match Outcomes: How to Rethink Performance Evaluation in European Club Football Using Expected Goals

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Anil Özdemir & Helmut Dietl & Giambattista Rossi & Rob Simmons, 2022. "Are workers rewarded for inconsistent performance?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 137-151, April.
  2. van Ours, Jan C., 2026. "Circular triads of overperformance in top European football leagues," Sports Economics Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
  3. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
  4. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
  5. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  6. Anselmo Ruiz-de-Alarcón-Quintero & Blanca De-la-Cruz-Torres, 2024. "An Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) Metric as a New Metric for Analyzing Elite Soccer Player Performance," Data, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-9, August.
  7. Jan C. van Ours, 2026. "Psychological Pressure and Team Performance," De Economist, Springer, vol. 174(2), pages 155-171, June.
  8. Jan C.van Ours, 2026. "Psychological Pressure and Team Performance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-005/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-055/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "The Performance Effects Of Wise And Unwise Managerial Dismissals," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 186-198, January.
  11. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2021. "The Effect of League Design on Spectator Attendance: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 514-545, June.
  12. Fernando Manuel Otero-Saborido & Rubén D. Aguado-Méndez & Víctor M. Torreblanca-Martínez & José Antonio González-Jurado, 2021. "Technical-Tactical Performance from Data Providers: A Systematic Review in Regular Football Leagues," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-15, September.
  13. Jan van Ours, 2026. "Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-009/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Michels, Rouven & Ötting, Marius & Langrock, Roland, 2023. "Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1118-1127.
  15. Raphael Flepp & Tim Pawlowski & Travis Richardson, 2025. "Suspense and Surprise in European Football," Papers 2506.21253, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2026.
  16. Marin FOTACHE & Irina COJOCARIU & Armand BERTEA, 2026. "Machine Learning for Football Match-Point Prediction. Algorithms Performance on Small Datasets," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 30(2), pages 5-22.
  17. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2024. "The Effect of League Design on Club Revenues in the Scottish Premier League," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28, January.
  18. Raphael Flepp & Pascal Flurin Meier, 2024. "Struck by Luck: Noisy Capability Cues and CEO Dismissal," Working Papers 389, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  19. Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "For What It's Worth: Outcome Bias in Managerial Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-054/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  20. van Ours, Jan C., 2026. "Outcome bias in managerial decisions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  21. Jedelhauser, Fabienne & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Pascal Flurin & Franck, Egon, 2025. "Does performance pressure accentuate outcome bias? Evidence from managerial dismissals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  22. Kaori Narita & Benjamin Holmes & Ian McHale, 2022. "Managerial Contribution to Firm Success: Evidence from Professional Football Leagues," Working Papers 202224, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
  23. Fabienne Jedelhauser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2023. "Overshadowed by Popularity: The Value of Second-Tier Stars in European Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1026-1054, December.
  24. David Butler & Robert Butler, 2025. "The Baby Club: Paternity and Performance in a High‐Pressure Setting," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 510-524, May.
  25. Felix Holzmeister & Magnus Johannesson, 2025. "Skills vs. Luck: Decomposing Deviations from Expected Performance in European Football Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 953-975, December.
  26. Philippe Meier & Raphael Flepp & Maximilian Ruedisser & Egon Franck, 2020. "The Advantage of Scoring Just Before the Half-Time Break—Pure Myth? Quasi-Experimental Evidence From European Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 548-565, June.
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