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Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

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  1. Ismail, Mohd Sabri & Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md & Ismail, Munira & Razak, Fatimah Abdul & Alias, Mohd Almie, 2022. "Early warning signals of financial crises using persistent homology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 586(C).
  2. Richter, Andries & Dakos, Vasilis, 2015. "Profit fluctuations signal eroding resilience of natural resources," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 12-21.
  3. Trisha L Spanbauer & Craig R Allen & David G Angeler & Tarsha Eason & Sherilyn C Fritz & Ahjond S Garmestani & Kirsty L Nash & Jeffery R Stone, 2014. "Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-7, October.
  4. Christopher Gandrud & Mark Hallerberg, 2015. "What is a Financial Crisis? Efficiently Measuring Real-Time Perceptions of Financial Market Stress with an Application to Financial Crisis Budget Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5632, CESifo.
  5. Matthias Schlögl & Karlheinz Gutjahr & Sven Fuchs, 2022. "The challenge to use multi-temporal InSAR for landslide early warning," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2913-2919, July.
  6. Parker, Denham & Winker, Henning & Bernard, Anthony & Götz, Albrecht, 2016. "Evaluating long-term monitoring of temperate reef fishes: A simulation testing framework to compare methods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 1-10.
  7. Renato M Coutinho & Roberto A Kraenkel & Paulo I Prado, 2015. "Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
  8. Riddhi Singh & Julianne D Quinn & Patrick M Reed & Klaus Keller, 2018. "Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
  9. Hong-Jia Chen & Chien-Chih Chen, 2016. "Testing the correlations between anomalies of statistical indexes of the geoelectric system and earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 877-895, November.
  10. Karimi Rahjerdi, Bahareh & Ramamoorthy, Ramesh & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Rajagopal, Karthikeyan & Jafari, Sajad, 2022. "Indicating the synchronization bifurcation points using the early warning signals in two case studies: Continuous and explosive synchronization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  11. Irina Alchinova & Mikhail Karganov, 2021. "Physiological Balance of the Body: Theory, Algorithms, and Results," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-8, January.
  12. Ryan D Batt & Tarsha Eason & Ahjond Garmestani, 2019. "Time scale of resilience loss: Implications for managing critical transitions in water quality," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, October.
  13. Georg Jäger & Christian Hofer & Marie Kapeller & Manfred Füllsack, 2017. "Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, December.
  14. Haoyu Wen & Massimo Pica Ciamarra & Siew Ann Cheong, 2018. "How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
  15. William A Brock & Stephen R Carpenter, 2012. "Early Warnings of Regime Shift When the Ecosystem Structure Is Unknown," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(9), pages 1-10, September.
  16. Qun Zhang & Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Early Warning Signals of Financial Crises with Multi-Scale Quantile Regressions of Log-Periodic Power Law Singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-43, November.
  17. Naoki Masuda & Kazuyuki Aihara & Neil G. MacLaren, 2024. "Anticipating regime shifts by mixing early warning signals from different nodes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
  18. James J Elser & Timothy J Elser & Stephen R Carpenter & William A Brock, 2014. "Regime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence Ahead for Food Security," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-7, May.
  19. Joël Berger, 2021. "Social Tipping Interventions Can Promote the Diffusion or Decay of Sustainable Consumption Norms in the Field. Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Intervention Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-13, March.
  20. Yang, Anji & Wang, Hao & Yuan, Sanling, 2023. "Tipping time in a stochastic Leslie predator–prey model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  21. Alessandro Spelta, 2016. "Stock prices prediction via tensor decomposition and links forecast," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def041, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  22. Tatiana Baumuratova & Simona Dobre & Thierry Bastogne & Thomas Sauter, 2013. "Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, December.
  23. Beatriz Arellano-Nava & Paul R. Halloran & Chris A. Boulton & James Scourse & Paul G. Butler & David J. Reynolds & Timothy M. Lenton, 2022. "Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
  24. Spelta, A. & Flori, A. & Pecora, N. & Pammolli, F., 2021. "Financial crises: Uncovering self-organized patterns and predicting stock markets instability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 736-756.
  25. Tirabassi, Giulio & Masoller, Cristina, 2022. "Correlation lags give early warning signals of approaching bifurcations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  26. Haarhaus, Tim & Strunk, Guido & Liening, Andreas, 2020. "Assessing the complex dynamics of entrepreneurial ecosystems: A nonstationary approach," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
  27. Gidea, Marian & Goldsmith, Daniel & Katz, Yuri & Roldan, Pablo & Shmalo, Yonah, 2020. "Topological recognition of critical transitions in time series of cryptocurrencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
  28. Navid Moghadam, Nastaran & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Jafari, Sajad & Sprott, Julien C., 2020. "Studying the performance of critical slowing down indicators in a biological system with a period-doubling route to chaos," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 544(C).
  29. David García-Gudiño & Emmanuel Landa & Joel Mendoza-Temis & Alondra Albarado-Ibañez & Juan C Toledo-Roy & Irving O Morales & Alejandro Frank, 2017. "Enhancement of early warning properties in the Kuramoto model and in an atrial fibrillation model due to an external perturbation of the system," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-14, July.
  30. Moghadam, Nastaran Navid & Ramamoorthy, Ramesh & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Rajagopal, Karthikeyan & Jafari, Sajad, 2022. "Tipping points of a complex network biomass model: Local and global parameter variations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
  31. Andrew R. Tilman & Elisabeth H. Krueger & Lisa C. McManus & James R. Watson, 2023. "Maintaining human wellbeing as socio-environmental systems undergo regime shifts," Papers 2309.04578, arXiv.org.
  32. Georg Jäger & Manfred Füllsack, 2019. "Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, February.
  33. Katherine A Spielmann & Matthew A Peeples & Donna M Glowacki & Andrew Dugmore, 2016. "Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
  34. Manfred Füllsack & Daniel Reisinger & Marie Kapeller & Georg Jäger, 2022. "Early warning signals from the periphery," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 665-685, May.
  35. Orozco-Fuentes, S. & Griffiths, G. & Holmes, M.J. & Ettelaie, R. & Smith, J. & Baggaley, A.W. & Parker, N.G., 2019. "Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 12-19.
  36. Lau, Matthew K. & Baiser, Benjamin & Northrop, Amanda & Gotelli, Nicholas J. & Ellison, Aaron M., 2018. "Regime shifts and hysteresis in the pitcher-plant microecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 382(C), pages 1-8.
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