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Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
  2. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
  3. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
  4. Nicolas Himounet & Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday, 2021. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," Working Papers 2021.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  5. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
  6. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.
  7. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
  8. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
  9. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  10. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  11. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
  12. Pyung Kun Chu, 2021. "Forecasting Recessions with Financial Variables and Temporal Dependence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, August.
  13. Jos'e-Manuel Pe~na & Fernando Su'arez & Omar Larr'e & Domingo Ram'irez & Arturo Cifuentes, 2023. "A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation," Papers 2302.02269, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  14. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
  15. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  16. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
  17. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
  18. Alistair Macaulay & Wenting Song, 2022. "Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media," Economics Series Working Papers 973, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  19. Matthieu Bussière & Stéphane Lhuissier, 2024. "What does an inversion of the yield curve tell us? [Que signifie l’inversion d’une courbe des taux ?]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 250.
  20. Seip, Knut L. & Zhang, Dan, 2025. "A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 681-701.
  21. Sabes, David & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2023. "Do yield curve inversions predict recessions in the euro area?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  22. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  23. Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Alice Carole Thomas & Jianxin Wang, 2024. "Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 252-280, February.
  24. Pascal Michaillat, 2025. "Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier," Papers 2506.09664, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
  25. Saiz, Lorena & Magro, Manuel Medina, 2025. "What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?," Working Paper Series 3122, European Central Bank.
  26. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
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