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The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Imad Moosa & John Vaz, 2015. "Directional accuracy, forecasting error and the profitability of currency trading: model-based evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(57), pages 6191-6199, December.
  2. Kartono, Agus & Solekha, Siti & Sumaryada, Tony & Irmansyah,, 2021. "Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using non-linear Schrödinger equations with economic fundamental parameters," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  3. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
  4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
  5. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
  6. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cuñado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1581-1595, December.
  7. Mahtab Athari & Atsuyuki Naka & Abdullah Noman, 2025. "Forecasting stock returns with sum-of-the-parts methodology: international evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 91-114, February.
  8. Imad Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2016. "The random walk as a forecasting benchmark: drift or no drift?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(43), pages 4131-4142, September.
  9. Dinci J. Penzin & Afees A. Salisu, 2020. "Analysis of the asymmetric response of exchange rate to interest rate differentials: Evidence from the MINT countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 938-943.
  10. Imad Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2014. "Error correction modelling and dynamic specifications as a conduit to outperforming the random walk in exchange rate forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3107-3118, September.
  11. Afees A. Salisu & Wasiu Adekunle & Zachariah Emmanuel & Wasiu A. Alimi, 2018. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: The role of structural breaks and asymmetries," Working Papers 055, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  12. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E., 2019. "Another look at the energy-growth nexus: New insights from MIDAS regressions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-84.
  13. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Luciano Vereda & Luan Mateus Matos de Araújo, 2025. "Fundamentals Models Versus Random Walk: Evidence From an Emerging Economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1884-1906, September.
  14. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
  15. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2015. "Revisiting the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-22.
  16. Afees A. Salisu & Lateef O. Akanni & Rasheed O. Azeez, 2018. "Could this be a fiction? Bitcoin forecasts most tradable currency pairs better than ARFIMA," Working Papers 051, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  17. Haruna, Issahaku & Abdulai, Hamdeeya & Kriesie, Maryiam & Harvey, Simon K., 2015. "Exchange rate forecasting in the West African Monetary Zone: a comparison of forecast performance of time series models," MPRA Paper 97009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Jul 2015.
  18. Firat Melih Yilmaz & Ozer Arabaci, 2021. "Should Deep Learning Models be in High Demand, or Should They Simply be a Very Hot Topic? A Comprehensive Study for Exchange Rate Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 217-245, January.
  19. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Does investor attention matter? The attention-return relationships in FX markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 644-660.
  20. Schlosser, William E., 2020. "Real price appreciation forecast tool: Two delivered log market price cycles in the Puget Sound markets of western Washington, USA, from 1992 through 2019," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  21. Nicolás Magner & Nicolás Hardy, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Forecasting: More Evidence of the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-27, July.
  22. David G. McMillan, 2017. "Stock return predictability: the role of inflation and threshold dynamics," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 357-375, May.
  23. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cunado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Behaviour of the BRICS for Over a Century," Working Papers 202064, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  24. Dipanwita Barai & Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. & Adam G. Walke, 2018. "Exchange Rate Forecast Futility For The Taka," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 6(2), pages 1-7.
  25. Afees A. Salisu & Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru, 2021. "Palm Oil Price–Exchange Rate Nexus In Indonesia And Malaysia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(2), pages 169-180, June.
  26. Leandro Maciel & Rosangela Ballini, 2021. "Functional Fuzzy Rule-Based Modeling for Interval-Valued Data: An Empirical Application for Exchange Rates Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 743-771, February.
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