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Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting

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Cited by:

  1. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Trapero, Juan R. & Barrow, Devon K., 2020. "Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
  2. Md. Iftekharul Alam Efat & Petr Hajek & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin & Rahat Uddin Azad & Md. Al Jaber & Shuvra Aditya & Mohammad Kabir Hassan, 2024. "Deep-learning model using hybrid adaptive trend estimated series for modelling and forecasting sales," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 339(1), pages 297-328, August.
  3. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2023. "On the Disagreement of Forecasting Model Selection Criteria," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, June.
  4. de Rezende, Rafael & Egert, Katharina & Marin, Ignacio & Thompson, Guilherme, 2022. "A white-boxed ISSM approach to estimate uncertainty distributions of Walmart sales," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1460-1467.
  5. Marco Zanotti, 2025. "On the stability of global forecasting models," Working Papers 553, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
  6. Zambon, Lorenzo & Agosto, Arianna & Giudici, Paolo & Corani, Giorgio, 2024. "Properties of the reconciled distributions for Gaussian and count forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1438-1448.
  7. Mariusz Doszyn, 2020. "Accuracy of Intermittent Demand Forecasting Systems in the Enterprise," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 912-930.
  8. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Athanasopoulos, George, 2021. "Elucidate structure in intermittent demand series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 141-152.
  9. Ziel, Florian, 2022. "M5 competition uncertainty: Overdispersion, distributional forecasting, GAMLSS, and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1546-1554.
  10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  11. Sagaert, Yves R. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & De Vuyst, Stijn & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Desmet, Bram, 2019. "Incorporating macroeconomic leading indicators in tactical capacity planning," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 12-19.
  12. Corani, Giorgio & Azzimonti, Dario & Rubattu, Nicolò, 2024. "Probabilistic reconciliation of count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 457-469.
  13. Taylor, James W., 2020. "A strategic predictive distribution for tests of probabilistic calibration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1380-1388.
  14. Marco Zanotti, 2025. "Do global forecasting models require frequent retraining?," Working Papers 551, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
  15. Hoeltgebaum, Henrique & Borenstein, Denis & Fernandes, Cristiano & Veiga, Álvaro, 2021. "A score-driven model of short-term demand forecasting for retail distribution centers," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 715-725.
  16. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2022. "Retail forecasting: Research and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1283-1318.
  17. Ivan Svetunkov & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Rebecca Killick, 2024. "Multi-step estimators and shrinkage effect in time series models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 1203-1239, May.
  18. Svetunkov, Ivan & Boylan, John Edward, 2017. "Multiplicative state-space models for intermittent time series," MPRA Paper 82487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Petropoulos, Fotios & Spiliotis, Evangelos, 2025. "Judgmental selection of parameters for simple forecasting models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 323(3), pages 780-794.
  20. Zhang, Bohan & Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Kang, Yanfei, 2024. "Discrete forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 143-153.
  21. Anagh Chattopadhyay & Soudeep Deb, 2024. "A spatio-temporal model for binary data and its application in analyzing the direction of COVID-19 spread," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 108(4), pages 823-851, December.
  22. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
  23. Berry, Lindsay R. & Helman, Paul & West, Mike, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasting of heterogeneous consumer transaction–sales time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 552-569.
  24. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024. "Forecast reconciliation: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
  25. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2019. "Retail forecasting: research and practice," MPRA Paper 89356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Tine Van Calster & Filip Van den Bossche & Bart Baesens & Wilfried Lemahieu, 2020. "Profit-oriented sales forecasting: a comparison of forecasting techniques from a business perspective," Papers 2002.00949, arXiv.org.
  27. Marco Zanotti, 2025. "The cost of ensembling: is it always worth combining?," Working Papers 554, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
  28. Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2020. "Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1420-1438.
  29. Sarlo, Rodrigo & Fernandes, Cristiano & Borenstein, Denis, 2023. "Lumpy and intermittent retail demand forecasts with score-driven models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1146-1160.
  30. Mariana Arozo B. de Melo & Cristiano A. C. Fernandes & Eduardo F. L. de Melo, 2018. "Forecasting aggregate claims using score‐driven time series models," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(3), pages 354-374, August.
  31. Lotte Hezewijk & Nico P. Dellaert & Willem L. Jaarsveld, 2025. "On non-negative auto-correlated integer demand processes," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 101(2), pages 135-161, April.
  32. Athanasopoulos, George & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2023. "On the evaluation of hierarchical forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1502-1511.
  33. Ata Allah Taleizadeh, 2017. "Stochastic Multi-Objectives Supply Chain Optimization with Forecasting Partial Backordering Rate: A Novel Hybrid Method of Meta Goal Programming and Evolutionary Algorithms," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(04), pages 1-28, August.
  34. Emir Zunic & Kemal Korjenic & Kerim Hodzic & Dzenana Donko, 2020. "Application of Facebook's Prophet Algorithm for Successful Sales Forecasting Based on Real-world Data," Papers 2005.07575, arXiv.org.
  35. Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.
  36. Mariusz Doszyn, 2020. "Biasedness of Forecasts Errors for Intermittent Demand Data," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 1113-1127.
  37. Prestwich, S.D. & Tarim, S.A. & Rossi, R., 2021. "Intermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decay," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 708-715.
  38. Richard Bean, 2023. "Forecasting the Monash Microgrid for the IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, January.
  39. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
  40. Annika Homburg & Christian H. Weiß & Layth C. Alwan & Gabriel Frahm & Rainer Göb, 2021. "A performance analysis of prediction intervals for count time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 603-625, July.
  41. Evangelos Spiliotis & Spyros Makridakis & Artemios-Anargyros Semenoglou & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2022. "Comparison of statistical and machine learning methods for daily SKU demand forecasting," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 3037-3061, July.
  42. Long, Xueying & Bui, Quang & Oktavian, Grady & Schmidt, Daniel F. & Bergmeir, Christoph & Godahewa, Rakshitha & Lee, Seong Per & Zhao, Kaifeng & Condylis, Paul, 2025. "Scalable probabilistic forecasting in retail with gradient boosted trees: A practitioner’s approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
  43. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2019. "Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 459-470.
  44. Nijolė MAKNICKIENĖ & Jelena STANKEVIČIENĖ & Algirdas MAKNICKAS, 2020. "Comparison of Forex Market Forecasting Tools Based on Evolino Ensemble and Technical Analysis Indicators," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 134-148, September.
  45. Schlaich, Tim & Hoberg, Kai, 2024. "When is the next order? Nowcasting channel inventories with Point-of-Sales data to predict the timing of retail orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(1), pages 35-49.
  46. George Athanasopoulos & Nikolaos Kourentzes, 2021. "On the Evaluation of Hierarchical Forecasts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  47. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2022. "M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1346-1364.
  48. Ulrich, Matthias & Jahnke, Hermann & Langrock, Roland & Pesch, Robert & Senge, Robin, 2021. "Distributional regression for demand forecasting in e-grocery," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 831-842.
  49. Kolassa, Stephan, 2022. "Commentary on the M5 forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1562-1568.
  50. George Athanasopoulos & Nikolaos Kourentzes, 2020. "On the Evaluation of Hierarchical Forecasts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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