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Can economic policy uncertainty predict exchange rate volatility? New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Bush, Georgia & López Noria, Gabriela, 2021. "Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 704-722.
  2. Arthur J. Lin & Hai-Yen Chang, 2020. "Volatility Transmission from Equity, Bulk Shipping, and Commodity Markets to Oil ETF and Energy Fund—A GARCH-MIDAS Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-21, September.
  3. Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung X., 2024. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on return spillover among green assets and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  4. Chenjie & Xu Yunbao & Peng Zhubin & Sidra Sohail, 2025. "Exploring the impacts of tourism development and exchange rate on renewable energy demand in China: A nonlinear perspective," Energy & Environment, , vol. 36(4), pages 1599-1616, June.
  5. Adediran, Idris A. & Swaray, Raymond, 2023. "Carbon trading amidst global uncertainty: The role of policy and geopolitical uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  6. Wang, Xinyu & Qi, Zikang & Huang, Jianglu, 2023. "How do monetary shock, financial crisis, and quotation reform affect the long memory of exchange rate volatility? Evidence from major currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  7. Hu, Chunyang & Zhou, Yang, 2025. "Do domestic and US economic policy uncertainty increase China’s macro-financial risk connectedness?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  8. Abir Abid & Christophe Rault, 2021. "On the Exchange Rates Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 403-425, September.
  9. Nourhaine Nefzi & Abir Abid, 2025. "Economic uncertainty and exchange rates linkage revisited: modelling tail dependence with high frequency data," Papers 2511.05315, arXiv.org.
  10. Yi-Chen Chung & Hsien-Ming Chou & Chih-Neng Hung & Chihli Hung, 2021. "Using Textual and Economic Features to Predict the RMB Exchange Rate," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(6), pages 1-8.
  11. Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Yushu Li, 2026. "Investigation of Swedish Krona exchange rate volatility using APARCH-Support Vector Regression," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, December.
  12. Ying, Xuehai & Luo, Beibei, 2025. "Reducing forecast uncertainty in China’s gold futures market through mixed-frequency volatility modeling," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PG).
  13. Salisu, Afees A. & Cuñado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and historical exchange rate volatility of the BRICS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 179-190.
  14. Wang, Nianling & Yin, Jiyuan & Li, Yong, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility in China: Evidence from SV-MIDAS-t model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  15. Đorđe ĐUKIĆ & Mustafa ÖZER & Mališa ĐUKIĆ, 2023. "The Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships between Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Variables in Selected Countries with Targeted Inflation: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear ARDL Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 104-124, June.
  16. Long, Shaobo & Zhang, Rui & Hao, Jing, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of Sino-US interest rate differentials and economic policy uncertainty ratio on RMB exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  17. Xinyu Wu & Xuebao Yin & Xueting Mei, 2022. "Forecasting the Volatility of European Union Allowance Futures with Climate Policy Uncertainty Using the EGARCH-MIDAS Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, April.
  18. Oğuz Tümtürk, 2023. "Key Macroeconomic Variables under Exchange Rate Volatility: Time-Varying Causality in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(39), pages 49-64, December.
  19. Hou, Tianyu & Xie, Chang, 2025. "The RMB value added real effective exchange rate: Theory, measurement and analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  20. Erik Munoz Henríquez & Francisco G�lvez-Gamboa, 2022. "Efecto de la incertidumbre de la política económica internacional sobre los mercados financieros latinoamericanos," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 38(165), pages 519-528.
  21. Oliveira, Lucas M. & Alencar, Airlane P., 2025. "When timing matters: Regime-dependent delays in exchange rate fundamentals," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PG).
  22. Wang, Jie & Hu, Jiukai & Yu, Bo, 2025. "Risk spillover effects among Chinese policy, economy and financial markets: Evidence from mixed-frequency data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 2263-2277.
  23. Xiong, Youlin & Shen, Jun & Yoon, Seong-Min & Dong, Xiyong, 2024. "Macroeconomic determinants of the long-term correlation between stock and exchange rate markets in China: A DCC-MIDAS-X approach considering structural breaks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  24. Lu, Man & Wang, Wei & Chen, Fengwen & Li, Hongmei, 2024. "Dynamic impacts of multidimensional uncertainty on the renminbi exchange rate: Insights from time-varying analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  25. Zhang, Li & Li, Yan & Yu, Sixin & Wang, Lu, 2023. "Risk transmission of El Niño-induced climate change to regional Green Economy Index," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 860-872.
  26. Damien Kunjal & Faeezah Peerbhai & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2022. "Political, economic, and financial country risks and the volatility of the South African Exchange Traded Fund market: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 236-258, September.
  27. Liu, Tao & Guan, Xinyue & Wei, Yigang & Xue, Shan & Xu, Liang, 2023. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of China's emission trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  28. Denis Haoheng Wu & Sherry Zhefang Zhou, 2026. "Component‐Driven FX Volatility Prediction: Evidence From USDCNH via GARCH‐MIDAS Models Exploiting Leading Indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), pages 194-216, January.
  29. Kim Karlsson, Hyunjoo & Li, Yushu, 2024. "Investigation of Swedish krona exchange rate volatility by APARCH-Support Vector Regression," Working Papers in Economics and Statistics 10/2024, Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics.
  30. Panpan Wang & Yishi Li & Xiaoxing Liu, 2023. "Asymmetric spillover between economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: A global network connectedness perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
  31. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  32. Zhang, Li & Wang, Lu & Wang, Xunxiao & Zhang, Yaojie & Pan, Zhigang, 2022. "How macro-variables drive crude oil volatility? Perspective from the STL-based iterated combination method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  33. Wang, Xinya, 2024. "Extreme risk spillovers in RMB exchange rates: The role of categorical economic policy uncertainties," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  34. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
  35. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  36. Khaskheli, Asadullah & Zhang, Hongyu & Raza, Syed Ali & Khan, Komal Akram, 2022. "Assessing the influence of news indicator on volatility of precious metals prices through GARCH-MIDAS model: A comparative study of pre and during COVID-19 period," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  37. Dou, Yue & Li, Yiying & Dong, Kangyin & Ren, Xiaohang, 2022. "Dynamic linkages between economic policy uncertainty and the carbon futures market: Does Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  38. Luo, Tao & Zhang, Lixia & Sun, Huaping & Bai, Jiancheng, 2023. "Enhancing exchange rate volatility prediction accuracy: Assessing the influence of different indices on the USD/CNY exchange rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
  39. Mei, Xueting & Wang, Xinyu, 2024. "Forecasting stock volatility using time-distance weighting fundamental’s shocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  40. Thiasha Naidoo & Peter Moores-Pitt & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi & Kazeem O Isah, 2025. "Analysing investor sentiment and stock market volatility of the JSE size-based indices: a GARCH-MIDAS approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(3), pages 1-23, September.
  41. Oğuz Tümtürk, 2022. "Global Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 69-84, December.
  42. Maria Ghani & Usman Ghani, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 165-181, March.
  43. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Min-Jian, 2023. "GARCH-MIDAS-GAS-copula model for CoVaR and risk spillover in stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  44. Xu Gong & Mingchao Wang & Liuguo Shao, 2022. "The impact of macro economy on the oil price volatility from the perspective of mixing frequency," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4487-4514, October.
  45. Yao, Yuan & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yan, 2022. "A volatility model based on adaptive expectations: An improvement on the rational expectations model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  46. Muhammad Arslan & Ahmed Imran Hunjra & Wajid Shakeel Ahmed & Younes Ben Zaied, 2024. "Forecasting multi‐frequency intraday exchange rates using deep learning models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1338-1355, August.
  47. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2023. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Explain Exchange Rate Movements in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): A Panel ARDL Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, November.
  48. Chaturvedi, Priya & Kumar, Kuldeep, 2022. "Econometric modelling of exchange rate volatility using mixed-frequency data," MPRA Paper 115222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Ghani, Maria & Qin, Quande, 2025. "Forecasting climate-sensitive industries' volatility: A regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS approach with multiple climate risk indicators," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  50. Lee A. Smales, 2022. "The influence of policy uncertainty on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 997-1016, August.
  51. Eiji OGAWA & Pengfei LUO, 2024. "Global Risk Factors and Their Impacts on Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from ASEAN+4 economies," Discussion papers 24006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  52. Wu, Xinyu & Xie, Haibin & Zhang, Huanming, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  53. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Elian, Mohammad I., 2021. "Analyzing the (a)symmetric impacts of oil price, economic policy uncertainty, and global geopolitical risk on exchange rate," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
  54. Wang, Fan & Pan, Changchun & Wang, Weiqiang, 2023. "Impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on RMB exchange rate volatility:The role of international capital flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  55. Chunyi Lu & Zhuoqi Teng & Yu Gao & Renhong Wu & Md. Alamgir Hossain & Yuantao Fang, 2022. "Analysis of Early Warning of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Value at Risk Measurement Based on Deep Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 1501-1524, April.
  56. Simran & Anil Kumar Sharma, 2025. "Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Forecasting Gold Futures Volatility: Evidence From India," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(8), pages 1006-1022, August.
  57. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2025. "EPU spillovers and exchange rate volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  58. Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng, 2024. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 121-158, February.
  59. Dong, Feng & Li, Zhicheng & Huang, Zihuang & Liu, Yu, 2024. "Extreme weather, policy uncertainty, and risk spillovers between energy, financial, and carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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