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Evaluating Predictive Densities of US Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set

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  1. is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Foltas, Alexander & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "On the efficiency of German growth forecasts: An empirical analysis using quantile random forests," Working Papers 21, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  3. Marine Carrasco & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "In-Sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 313-338, July.
  4. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2024. "From Fixed‐Event to Fixed‐Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multihorizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(7), pages 1675-1704, October.
  5. William A. Barnett & Sohee Park, 2023. "Forecasting inflation and output growth with credit‐card‐augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 331-346, March.
  6. Sebastiano Manzan, 2015. "Forecasting the Distribution of Economic Variables in a Data-Rich Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 144-164, January.
  7. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
  8. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
  9. Reif Magnus, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
  10. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.
  11. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
  12. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2015. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 650-655, May.
  13. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
  14. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  15. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
  16. Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
  17. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
  18. Graziano Moramarco, 2025. "Regime‐Switching Density Forecasts Using Economists' Scenarios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 833-845, March.
  19. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting," Papers 2006.11265, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
  20. Demetrescu, Matei & Kruse-Becher, Robinson, 2025. "Is U.S. real output growth non-normal? A tale of time-varying location and scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  21. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
  22. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Rumler, Fabio, 2020. "Inflation forecasting using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a time-varying trend," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 383-393.
  23. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 11-20.
  24. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
  25. Barbara Rossi, 2021. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1135-1190, December.
  26. Mogliani, Matteo & Simoni, Anna, 2021. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 833-860.
  27. Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  28. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
  29. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Jacek Osiewalski, 2024. "Hybrid SV‐GARCH, t‐GARCH and Markov‐switching covariance structures in VEC models—Which is better from a predictive perspective?," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 92(1), pages 62-86, April.
  30. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
  31. Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Davide Pettenuzzo & Aaron Smith, 2019. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic Tilting," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 559-586.
  32. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
  33. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:31-45 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2025. "Global and regional long-term climate forecasts: a heterogeneous future," UC3M Working papers. Economics 45946, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  35. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
  36. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska, 2022. "Forecasting performance of Bayesian VEC-MSF models for financial data in the presence of long-run relationships," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 427-448, September.
  37. Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2025. "Predictive Density Combination Using Bayesian Machine Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(3), pages 1287-1315, August.
  38. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
  39. Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024. "Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
  40. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  41. Justyna Wróblewska & Anna Pajor, 2019. "One-period joint forecasts of Polish inflation, unemployment and interest rate using Bayesian VEC-MSF models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(1), pages 23-45, March.
  42. Taylor, James W., 2020. "A strategic predictive distribution for tests of probabilistic calibration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1380-1388.
  43. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
  44. Matei Demetrescu & Robinson Kruse-Becher, 2021. "Is U.S. real output growth really non-normal? Testing distributional assumptions in time-varying location-scale models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  45. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
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