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The mixed economy of long-term care in England, Germany, Italy, and Spain

Author

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  • Rothgang, Heinz
  • Comas-Herrera, Adelina
  • Wittenberg, Raphael
  • Pickard, Linda
  • Gori, Cristiano
  • Di Maio, Alessandra Pozzi
  • Costa-Font, Joan
  • Patxot, Concepció

Abstract

This paper is based on a European Commission-funded study of future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. It investigates how sensitive long-term care expenditure is to assumptions about demographic trends, future dependency rates, care arrangements, and real inflation. Macro-simulation projection models for each country reflecting the national characteristics of the care system were used to make comparable projections based on a set of common assumptions. This central case was then used as a point of comparison in order to explore the sensitivity of the models to alternative scenarios about key determinants of future expenditure. The proportion of GDP spent on longterm care is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050 in each country under the central case. However, projections are highly sensitive to changes in the above assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rothgang, Heinz & Comas-Herrera, Adelina & Wittenberg, Raphael & Pickard, Linda & Gori, Cristiano & Di Maio, Alessandra Pozzi & Costa-Font, Joan & Patxot, Concepció, 2004. "The mixed economy of long-term care in England, Germany, Italy, and Spain," Working papers of the ZeS 05/2004, University of Bremen, Centre for Social Policy Research (ZeS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeswps:052004
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    1. Doblhammer, Gabriele & Kytir, Josef, 2001. "Compression or expansion of morbidity? Trends in healthy-life expectancy in the elderly Austrian population between 1978 and 1998," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 385-391, February.
    2. Verbrugge, Lois M. & Jette, Alan M., 1994. "The disablement process," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-14, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuela Bianchera & Sara Arber, 2007. "Caring and Sleep Disruption among Women in Italy," Sociological Research Online, , vol. 12(5), pages 200-213, September.

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