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Multicriteria analysis under uncertainty with IANUS - method and empirical results


  • Klauer, Bernd
  • Drechsler, Martin
  • Messner, Frank


IANUS is a method for aiding public decision-making that supports efforts towards sustainable development and has a wide range of application. IANUS stands for Integrated Assessment of Decisions uNder Uncertainty for Sustainable Development. This paper introduces the main features of IANUS and illustrates the method using the results of a case study in the Torgau region (eastern Germany). IANUS structures the decision process into four steps: scenario derivation, criteria selection, modeling, evaluation. Its overall aim is to extract the information needed for a sound, responsible decision in a clear, transparent manner. The method is designed for use in conflict situations where environmental and socioeconomic effects need to be considered and so an interdisciplinary approach is required. Special emphasis is placed on a broad perception and consideration of uncertainty. Three types of uncertainty are explicitly taken into account by IANUS: development uncertainty (uncertainty about the social, economic and other developments that affect the consequences of decision), model uncertainty (uncertainty associated with the prediction of the effects of decisions), and weight uncertainty (uncertainty about the appropriate weighting of the criteria). The backbone of IANUS is a multicriteria method with the ability to process uncertain information. In the case study the multicriteria method PROMETHEE is used. Since PROMETHEE in its basic versions is not able to process uncertain information an extension of this method is developed here and described in detail.

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  • Klauer, Bernd & Drechsler, Martin & Messner, Frank, 2002. "Multicriteria analysis under uncertainty with IANUS - method and empirical results," UFZ Discussion Papers 2/2002, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:22002

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    6. Roy, Bernard, 1990. "Decision-aid and decision-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 324-331, April.
    7. Bertrand Mareschal & Jean Pierre Brans, 1990. "The PROMETHEE methods for MCDM: the PROMCALC, GAIA and BANK ADVISER software," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9337, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ward, E. John & Dimitriou, Harry T. & Dean, Marco, 2016. "Theory and background of multi-criteria analysis: Toward a policy-led approach to mega transport infrastructure project appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 21-45.

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