IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb475/200450.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Random walks with drift : a sequential approach

Author

Listed:
  • Steland, Ansgar

Abstract

In this paper sequential monitoring schemes to detect nonparametric drifts are studied for the random walk case. The procedure is based on a kernel smoother. As a by-product we obtain the asymptotics of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and its associated sequential partial sum process under non-standard sampling. The asymptotic behavior differs substantially from the stationary situation, if there is a unit root (random walk component). To obtain meaningful asymptotic results we consider local nonparametric alternatives for the drift component. It turns out that the rate of convergence at which the drift vanishes determines whether the asymptotic properties of the monitoring procedure are determined by a deterministic or random function. Further, we provide a theoretical result about the optimal kernel for a given alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Steland, Ansgar, 2004. "Random walks with drift : a sequential approach," Technical Reports 2004,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200450
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22563/1/tr50-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1991. " Seasonality in Stock Price Mean Reversion: Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1427-1444, September.
    5. Davidson, James, 2002. "Corrigendum to "Establishing conditions for the functional central limit theorem in nonlinear and semiparametric time series processes": [Journal of Econometrics 106 (2) (2002) 243-269]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 103-104, September.
    6. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    7. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    8. Steland Ansgar, 2002. "A Bayesian View on Detecting Drifts by Nonparametric Methods," Stochastics and Quality Control, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 177-186, January.
    9. Ferger Dietmar, 1996. "On The Asymptotic Behavior Of Change-Point Estimators In Case Of No Change With Applications To Testing," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 137-144, February.
    10. Ferger, D., 1994. "Nonparametric detection of changepoints for sequentially observed data," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 359-372, July.
    11. Davidson, James, 2002. "Establishing conditions for the functional central limit theorem in nonlinear and semiparametric time series processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 243-269, February.
    12. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/isdorde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.