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Macroeconomic shocks and cedit risk in the Kenyan banking sector

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  • Atiti, Faith
  • Kimani, Stephanie
  • Agung, Raphael

Abstract

This paper examines how macroeconomic shocks affect credit risk in the Kenyan banking sector. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model within a time-series framework, we establish the existence of both a short-run and long-run nexus between macroeconomic variables and bank-credit risk. We establish a negative relationship between credit risk and GDP growth although not significant. We also find that the relationship between bank profitability and asset quality is negative in the short-run but positive in the long-run. The paper also documents a positive short-run relation between asset quality and private sector credit growth, which turns negative in the longrun. Furthermore, the bank asset quality-capital nexus is positive in the short-run but turns negative in the long-run. The concave relationship suggest that NPLs will rise with increases in capital to a certain threshold (moral hazard effect), after which more capital build ups decrease NPLs (disciplinary or regulatory effect). Finally, the speed of adjustment coefficient is negative and statistically significant. A shock in any period is self-correcting at a rate of 24.96%, implying that the long-run market equilibrium is restored within a period of four quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Atiti, Faith & Kimani, Stephanie & Agung, Raphael, 2022. "Macroeconomic shocks and cedit risk in the Kenyan banking sector," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 58, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kbawps:58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Dorsaf Elbir Merhbene, 2021. "The relationship between non-performing loans, banking system stability and economic activity: The case of Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Anne Krueger & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Role of Bank Restructuring in Recovering from Crises: Mexico 1995-98," NBER Working Papers 7042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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