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Replication Report of "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility" by Danz, Vesterlund, and Wilson (2022)

Author

Listed:
  • Agyeah, George
  • Samad, Zeeshan
  • Drujano-Ochoa, Dario

Abstract

This study replicates and extends the analysis of belief elicitation methods conducted by Danz et al. (2022). The original paper scrutinizes the binarized scoring rule (BSR) method and its effectiveness in incentivizing truthful reporting. Using data from the original controlled laboratory experiments conducted at the Pittsburgh Experimental Economics Laboratory (PEEL), this replication investigates the impact of varying levels of information about incentives on belief reporting accuracy. The findings of the replication confirm systematic biases in belief reporting, particularly a center-bias effect, challenging the behavioral incentive compatibility of the BSR method. Robustness checks further confirm the generalizability of these results across different settings and belief elicitation tasks. These findings underscore the need for improved methodologies that ensure both theoretical and behavioral incentive compatibility in belief elicitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Agyeah, George & Samad, Zeeshan & Drujano-Ochoa, Dario, 2025. "Replication Report of "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility" by Danz, Vesterlund, and Wilson (2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 255, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:255
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/324166/1/I4R-DP255.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanjim Hossain & Ryo Okui, 2013. "The Binarized Scoring Rule," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(3), pages 984-1001.
    2. David Danz & Lise Vesterlund & Alistair J. Wilson, 2022. "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(9), pages 2851-2883, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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