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Estimating conditional betas and the price of risk for a thin stock market

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  • Malkamäki, Markku

Abstract

This paper examines the Sharpe-Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in which time-varying-parameter models are altemative to the static market model. Prior evidence does not support the CAPM and suggests that market risk is not priced or the price of the beta risk is significantly negative for a thin European stock market, e.g. the Finnish stock market. We show that this phenomenom is due to static ordinary least squares beta estimates that are spurious. We reduce the errors-in-variables problem by estimating the firm-specific betas using the Kalman filter technique and employ the forecasted beta values in cross-sectional analysis. It tums out that in our analysis of pooled data the sign for caefficient of the price of risk becomes positive and we are no longer able to reject the mean-variance efficiency of the market index. The data cavers all Finnish cammon stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange throughout the years 1972-1989.

Suggested Citation

  • Malkamäki, Markku, 1992. "Estimating conditional betas and the price of risk for a thin stock market," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1992, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1992_008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Shanken, J. & Weinstein, M.I., 1990. "Macroeconomics Variables and Asset Pricing : Further Results," Papers 91-05, Rochester, Business - Managerial Economics Research Center.
    3. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    4. Dimson, E & Marsh, P R, 1983. "The Stability of UK Risk Measures and the Problem of Thin Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 753-783, June.
    5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    6. Ng, Lilian, 1991. "Tests of the CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1507-1521, September.
    7. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
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