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Do international investment and trade flows show any signs of fragmentation?

Author

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  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso
  • Kerola, Eeva
  • Nuutilainen, Riikka

Abstract

This paper utilizes available aggregate country-level data, as well as bilateral trade and investment data, to identify signs of fragmentation in trade and investment patterns among ten major trading countries or regional trading blocks. We compare the trade and investment trends in the years during the US-China trade war and increase in geopolitical tensions (2018-2021) against the years preceding the trade war (2014-2017). Our analysis generally corroborates findings in the existing literature. Bilateral flows between the US and China have been damaged, but there is little evidence of wider fragmentation or that the world is splitting into competing spheres. Even focusing on technologyintensive manufactures that are increasingly subject to trade restrictions, we find no evidence of broad fragmentation. Our analysis does reveal, however, shifts in global trade and FDI, particularly towards Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and ASEAN countries. This may reflect a partial reshuffling of global value chains that is a natural outcome of favorable developments in these regions, as well as rising production costs in China. Such shifts do not necessarily reflect global fragmentation driven by geoeconomics factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso & Kerola, Eeva & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2023. "Do international investment and trade flows show any signs of fragmentation?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 12/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:122023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abdoul G. Mijiyawa, 2017. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Exports? Evidence from African Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1934-1957, September.
    2. Ali M Kutan & Goran Vukšić, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Export Performance: Empirical Evidence," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 430-445, September.
    3. Hsiao, Frank S.T. & Hsiao, Mei-Chu W., 2006. "FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia--Panel data versus time-series causality analyses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1082-1106, December.
    4. Musibau Adetunji Babatunde, 2017. "Foreign direct investment and export performance in Nigeria: a disaggregated analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 142-158.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simola, Heli, 2023. "Trends in Chinese value chains 2018-2022," BOFIT Policy Briefs 14/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    Keywords

    Global trade; foreign direct investments; fragmentation;
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