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Shutting Down to Save Lives: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Non-Essential Business Closure

Author

Listed:
  • Pérez, A.F.
  • Pedrazas, A.M.
  • Gaggero, A.

Abstract

We quantify the efect of the non-essential business closure policy in the Spanish region of Andalusia. Exploiting that municipalities were assigned a two-week closure of the non-essential business on the basis of the exact 14-day infection rate (per 100,000 inhabitants) being above a cut-off value of 1,000, we use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal impact of the policy on new COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using weekly administrative data, our estimates suggest that, on average, the policy reduced new COVID-19 cases and deaths by 63 and 1, respectively. Notably, our heterogeneity analysis highlights that while the policy was extremely effective in urban areas, its effect was not statistically different from zero in rural areas, namely, municipalities with population less than 5,000. Our results imply that roughly 700 lives have been saved by this policy. Overall, this study provides compelling evidence that shutting down businesses has been an effective tool to counter the COVID-19 pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez, A.F. & Pedrazas, A.M. & Gaggero, A., 2023. "Shutting Down to Save Lives: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Non-Essential Business Closure," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 23/04, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:23/04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emery, Rebecca L. & Johnson, Sydney T. & Simone, Melissa & Loth, Katie A. & Berge, Jerica M. & Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne, 2021. "Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stress, mood, and substance use among young adults in the greater Minneapolis-St. Paul area: Findings from project EAT," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Gaggero, Alessio & Fernández-Pérez, Ángel & Jiménez-Rubio, Dolores, 2022. "Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on depression in older adults: A panel data analysis," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(9), pages 865-871.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; non-essential business closure; Spain; 14-day infection rate; infection; mortality; regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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