IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0211011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipated versus Unanticipated Money in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Rahmi Yamak

    (Karadeniz Technical University)

  • Yakup Kucukkale

    (Ondokuz Mayis University)

Abstract

This Study investigates the validity of the policy ineffectiveness hypothesis of Rational Expectations-Natural Rate Models that only unanticipated policy changes affect real economic variables by using Turkish data over the period of 1980:I-1995:I. The procedure used to test the hypothesis is the autoregressive system introduced by McGee and Stasiak (1985). The empirical results reported in this paper imply that unanticipated monetary policy appears to play an insignificant role in improving real economic activity, and that anticipated monetary policy exerts a significant expansionary impact upon real economic activity. Such evidence for Turkey strongly rejects the policy ineffectiveness hypothesis of Rational Expectations-Natural Rate Models.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahmi Yamak & Yakup Kucukkale, 2002. "Anticipated versus Unanticipated Money in Turkey," Macroeconomics 0211011, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0211011 Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; to print on A4; pages: 10 ; figures: included. pdf document submitted via ftp
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0211/0211011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    2. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 101-115.
    5. Canarella, Giorgio & Pollard, Stephen K., 1989. "Unanticipated monetary growth, output, and the price level in Latin America: An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 345-358.
    6. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters,in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 788-802.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 277-301.
    9. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 326-334.
    11. Janardan B. Khatri-Chhetri & Ampon Kittiampon & Myles S. Wallace, 1990. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Money in Thailand," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 34(1), pages 83-87, March.
    12. McGee, Robert T & Stasiak, Richard T, 1985. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? Another Look," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 16-27, February.
    13. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 277-301.
    14. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 788-802.
    15. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-190, February.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Wogin, Gillian, 1980. "Unemployment and monetary policy under rational expectations : Some Canadian evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-68, January.
    18. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anticipated unanticipated money growth sur shock;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0211011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.