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Misspecifications in modelling journeys to work

Listed author(s):
  • Jens Petter Gitlesen


  • Inge Thorsen


  • Jan Ubøe


In this paper we perform a simulation procedure of testing models for journeys to work. The testing regime is carried out on a number of such models, mainly within the class of gravity models. We test the models on synthetic populations constructed from an aggregated set of a large number of worker subcategories, reflecting for instance different qualifications. Each subcategory is constructed from a gravity model where the population size and parameters are drawn from random distributions. The advantage of this approach is that a large number of tests can be carried out repeatedly to test the response of different kinds of models. We test how specific attributes of the spatial structure and worker heterogeneity are captured by different modelling alternatives. In addition we find that some model formulations falsely tend to report significant contributions to characteristics that were not taken into account in the data generating simulation process. This illustrates the imminent risk of drawing wrong conclusions in empirical work.

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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa04p420.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p420
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  1. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1984. "Proximate Aggregation-Estimation of Spatial Interaction Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 16(4), pages 467-486, April.
  2. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1982. "Spatial Aggregation in Gravity Models: 4. Generalisations and Large-Scale Applications," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 14(6), pages 795-822, June.
  3. Mark W Horner, 2002. "Extensions to the concept of excess commuting," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 34(3), pages 543-566, March.
  4. Anas, Alex, 1983. "Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 13-23, February.
  5. T J Fik & G F Mulligan, 1990. "Spatial Flows and Competing Central Places: Towards a General Theory of Hierarchical Interaction," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 22(4), pages 527-549, April.
  6. T J Fik & R G Amey & G F Mulligan, 1992. "Labor migration amongst hierarchically competing and intervening origins and destinations," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(9), pages 1271-1290, September.
  7. M Batty & P K Sikdar, 1982. "Spatial Aggregation in Gravity Models: 3. Two-Dimensional Trip Distribution and Location Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 14(5), pages 629-658, May.
  8. A S Fotheringham, 1984. "Spatial Flows and Spatial Patterns," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 16(4), pages 529-543, April.
  9. M Batty & P K Sikdarfl, 1982. "Spatial Aggregation in Gravity Models: 2. One-Dimensional Population Density Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 14(4), pages 525-553, April.
  10. D G Steel & D Holt, 1996. "Rules for Random Aggregation," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 28(6), pages 957-978, June.
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