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Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik

Author

Listed:
  • Hendrik Mahlkow

    (WIFO)

  • Sonali Chowdhry

    (German Institute for Economic Research)

  • Julian Hinz

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Abstract

Die neue Zollpolitik der USA konfrontiert die EU mit wachsender handelspolitischer Unsicherheit. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert dieser Research Brief drei Szenarien, mit denen die EU auf protektionistische Tendenzen reagieren kann: 1. ein sektorales Handelsabkommen mit den USA, 2. die Vertiefung bestehender Freihandelsabkommen und 3. der Abschluss neuer Freihandelsabkommen mit Partnern wie Indien, Australien oder dem Mercosur. Basierend auf Simulationen mit dem KITE-Modell zeigt sich: Während ein auf die USA beschränktes Abkommen kaum makroökonomische Effekte hat, führen sowohl Szenario 2 als auch Szenario 3 zu einem robusten BIP- und Exportwachstum – insbesondere in wissensintensiven Sektoren. Die stärksten Effekte ergeben sich jedoch aus einer Kombination beider Strategien, wobei der Effekt für Österreich etwas geringer ausfallen würde, da Österreichs Wirtschaftsstruktur stärker auf bestehende EU-Handelspartner und traditionelle Absatzmärkte ausgerichtet ist. Handelsdiversifizierung ist somit kein technisches Detail, sondern ein zentrales Instrument europäischer Resilienzpolitik.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendrik Mahlkow & Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz, 2025. "Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik," WIFO Research Briefs 5, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2025:i:5
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arne J. Nagengast & Yoto V. Yotov, 2025. "Staggered Difference-in-Differences in Gravity Settings: Revisiting the Effects of Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 271-296, January.
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