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Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections : 1990-91

Author

Listed:
  • Vu, My T.
  • Bos, Eduard
  • Stephens, Patience W.
  • Bulatao, Rodolfo

Abstract

This paper provides population projections for each country, economy, or territory in one World Bank region, as well as for nonborrower countries in the same geographic area. The Latin American and the Caribbean region is demographically at an intermediate stage. Fertility has declined to between 3 and 4 children per woman in all subregions as contraceptive use has continued to broaden. Life expectancy has risen to between 65 and 69, or about 10 years below countries with the most favorable mortality conditions. Some countries in the region have advanced to replacement level fertility; a few others are just starting the fertility transition. The projections show all countries in the region completing the transition by 2030 - the earliest of all regions. In this 1990-91 edition, projects are provided in a new format to permit the inclusion of data on recent demographic trends. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available age-sex distributions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are also made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Vu, My T. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & Bulatao, Rodolfo, 1991. "Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections : 1990-91," Policy Research Working Paper Series 600, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:600
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 1990. "World Development Report 1990," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 5973, April.
    2. Arnold, Fred, 1989. "Revised estimates and projections of international migration : 1980-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 275, The World Bank.
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