IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2026-20.html

Hedging Auction Volatility with Gap Call Options

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert Mbara

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

We investigate the feasibility of hedging commodity price risk using gap call options within an auction-based market devoid of traditional derivatives. Using a novel, high-frequency dataset from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE), we model spot price dynamics by deriving a Geometric Brownian Motion process from the independent private values paradigm. The estimated model captures the unique microstructure of the NCE, where discrete weekly auctions generate prices characterized by extreme volatility (146.5% annualized). We utilize Monte Carlo simulation to price and evaluate the performance of gap call options for buyers seeking protection against catastrophic price spikes. Our results demonstrate that gap options – characterized by a trigger price higher than the strike – provide superior risk-adjusted returns compared to standard European calls. Our study offers a practical framework for developing tailored risk management instruments in emerging commodity exchanges, and provides empirical evidence for the viability of gap options as a cost-effective hedging tool in high-volatility, institutionally constrained markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert Mbara, 2026. "Hedging Auction Volatility with Gap Call Options," Working Papers 2026-20, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/f475d61f-e1fa-4c9b-9f07-8aae2930f702/4282
    File Function: First version, 2026
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sasha Breger Bush, 2012. "Coffee, Derivatives, and Income Security: Theory and Practice," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Derivatives and Development, chapter 0, pages 51-100, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Ankirchner, Stefan & Dimitroff, Georgi & Heyne, Gregor & Pigorsch, Christian, 2012. "Futures Cross-Hedging with a Stationary Basis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1361-1395, December.
    3. René M. Stulz, 2022. "Rethinking Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 34(1), pages 32-46, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Castro, Luciano & Galvao, Antonio F. & Ota, Hirofumi, 2026. "Quantile approach to intertemporal consumption with multiple assets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    2. Vadhindran K. Rao, 2011. "Multiperiod Hedging using Futures: Mean Reversion and the Optimal Hedging Path," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    3. Samarakoon, S.M.R.K. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Chathuranga, G.G., 2025. "Financial derivatives usage dynamics in Asia Pacific region," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Fung, Derrick W.H. & Lee, Wing Yan & Yang, Charles C., 2025. "Surviving the storm: Evaluating the role of enterprise risk management in property and liability insurers' performance during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Ankirchner, Stefan & Schneider, Judith C. & Schweizer, Nikolaus, 2014. "Cross-hedging minimum return guarantees: Basis and liquidity risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 93-109.
    6. Carla Mereu & Robert Stelzer, 2015. "A BSDE arising in an exponential utility maximization problem in a pure jump market model," Papers 1508.07561, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    7. Zainudin, Ahmad Danial & Mohamad, Azhar, 2021. "Cross hedging with stock index futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 128-144.
    8. Feng, Yongqi & Zhang, Haolin & Zhang, Lei, 2025. "How monetary policies and fintech shape the peer effect of corporate financialization: Evidence from China's listed companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Abdulateif A. Almulhim & Abdullah A. Aljughaiman & Abdulaziz S. Al Naim & Abdulmohsen K. Alosaimi, 2024. "Effects of Risk Committee on Agency Costs and Financial Performance," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Mahan Tahvildari, 2021. "Forward indifference valuation and hedging of basis risk under partial information," Papers 2101.00251, arXiv.org.
    11. Min Cao & Thomas Conlon, 2025. "Tail Risk Hedging: The Superiority of the Naïve Hedging Strategy," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(8), pages 977-1005, August.
    12. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jacek Rapacz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.