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An Empirical Analysis of Sustainability of Trade Deficit:Evidence from Sri Lanka



In this paper, the long-run relationship between Sri Lankan exports and imports during the period 1950 to 2006 is examined using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for an endogenously determined structural break. The results failed to support the existence of a long-run equilibrium between exports and imports in Sri Lanka. This finding questions the effectiveness of Sri Lanka’s current long-term macroeconomic policies and suggests that Sri Lanka is in violation of its international budget constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Verma, Reetu & Perera, Nelson, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Sustainability of Trade Deficit:Evidence from Sri Lanka," Economics Working Papers wp08-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp08-06

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Katrakilidis & Nicholas Tabakis, 2000. "Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 599-603.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hyun-Jae Rhee, 1997. "Are Imports and Exports of Korea Cointegrated?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 109-114.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumitriu Ramona & Stefanescu Razvan, 2009. "Analysis Of The Romanian Current Account Sustainability," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 163-168, May.
    2. Heidari, Hassan & Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Davoudi, Narmin, 2012. "Are current account deficits sustainable? New evidence from Iran using bounds test approach to level relationships," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-18.
    3. Genci Gjanci & Ardian Cerava, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the trade balance in postcommunist Albania," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 7(1), pages 33-42, June.
    4. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union," MPRA Paper 51244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2013.
    5. repec:pid:journl:v:55:y:2016:i:4:p:397-419 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Burak Güris & Burcu Kiran, 2011. "Foreign Trade Deficit Sustainability of Turkey," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 167-174.

    More about this item


    Trade Deficit; Exports; Imports; Unit root; Structural Breaks; Cointegration; Sri Lanka;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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