Statistical Modelling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two phases for extreme rainfall. The non-stationary model means that the location parameter in the GEV distribution is a linear function of time to detect temporal trends in maximum rainfall. Second, we compute the future behavior of stationary models for the return levels of 10, 20, 50 and 100-years based on the period 1960-2010. In addition, the 95% confidence intervals of the return levels are provided. This is the first investigation to use generalized extreme value distributions to model extreme rainfall in Taiwan.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||For financial support, the first and third authors are most grateful to the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project (NSC 100-2621-M-492-001), and the second author wishes to acknowledge the Australian Research Council, National Science Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.|
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- Demetris Koutsoyiannis & George Baloutsos, 2000. "Analysis of a Long Record of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Athens, Greece, and Design Rainfall Inferences," Natural Hazards, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 22(1), pages 29-48, July.
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