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Statistical Modelling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

  • Lan-Fen Chu

    (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) Taiwan)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands and Institute of Economic Research Kyoto University Japan and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid Spain)

  • Szu-Hua Wang

    (Department of Urban Affairs and Environmental Planning Chinese Cultural University Taiwan)

This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two phases for extreme rainfall. The non-stationary model means that the location parameter in the GEV distribution is a linear function of time to detect temporal trends in maximum rainfall. Second, we compute the future behavior of stationary models for the return levels of 10, 20, 50 and 100-years based on the period 1960-2010. In addition, the 95% confidence intervals of the return levels are provided. This is the first investigation to use generalized extreme value distributions to model extreme rainfall in Taiwan.

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File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP837.pdf
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Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 837.

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Length: 31pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:837
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  1. Demetris Koutsoyiannis & George Baloutsos, 2000. "Analysis of a Long Record of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Athens, Greece, and Design Rainfall Inferences," Natural Hazards, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 22(1), pages 29-48, July.
  2. O. Yul Kwon, 2007. "South Korea," Chapters, in: Handbook on the Northeast and Southeast Asian Economies, chapter 2 Edward Elgar.
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