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Distribuzioni di probabilità implicite nei prezzi delle opzioni

  • Alessandro Beber
  • Luca Erzegovesi

    ()

    (DISA, Faculty of Economics, Trento University)

Questo lavoro si propone di illustrare i presupposti teorici e le metodologie empiriche per l'estrazione della distribuzione di probabilità dell'attività finanziaria sottostante dai prezzi delle opzioni. In particolare si analizzano le anomalie nel pricing delle opzioni da parte del mercato rispetto ai modelli teorici, si descrivono le tecniche di estrazione della funzione di densità neutrale al rischio proposte dalla letteratura e si presentano alcune evidenze empiriche sui mercati azionario, dei cambi, dei tassi d'interesse, ottenute applicando alcune delle metodologie illustrate.

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Paper provided by Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy in its series Alea Tech Reports with number 008.

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Length: 123 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1999
Date of revision: 14 Jun 2008
Handle: RePEc:trt:aleatr:008
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  1. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1995. " Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities in Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 529-47, June.
  2. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  3. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, . "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  5. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
  6. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February.
  7. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Accouting for Biases in Black-Scholes," Finance 0207008, EconWPA.
  8. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
  9. Peter A. Abken, 1995. "Using Eurodollar futures options: gauging the market's view of interest rate movements," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Mar, pages 10-30.
  10. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
  12. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81.
  13. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
  14. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
  15. David S. Bates, . "Testing Option Pricing Models," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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