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Financial Constraints and Firm Performance: Evidence from SMEs Using Survey Data and Propensity Score Matching

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  • Mauri Kotamaki

    (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland)

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal effect of financial constraints on the short-term performance of Finnish SMEs using survey data from 2016-2024 and propensity score matching (PSM). We examine six outcomes: turnover, employment, investment, profitability, solvency, and innovation, and report effects on both odds and probability scales. Financial constraints significantly increase the likelihood of adverse outcomes: constrained firms face 10-30\% higher odds of reporting deterioration in core indicators, with the largest effects on solvency (29\% higher odds) and profitability, followed by investment and turnover; employment effects are smaller, and innovation effects modest. Marginal effects indicate up to a 4 percentage point reduction in the probability of improvement for key outcomes. Results are robust to multiple-testing adjustments, and alternative specifications. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effects vary by firm size, pointing to a dual mechanism: turnover and profitability effects are strongest for micro and small firms, reflecting immediate liquidity stress, while employment and investment effects intensify with firm size, suggesting real adjustments (growth obstacles) are more pronounced in mid-sized SMEs. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauri Kotamaki, 2025. "Financial Constraints and Firm Performance: Evidence from SMEs Using Survey Data and Propensity Score Matching," Discussion Papers 172, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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