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What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? : evidence from the european options exchange

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  • Berglund, T.
  • Kabir, R.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper analyzes systematic deviations of the observed futures price from the value predicted by the simple cost-of-carry relationship. A model to explain this deviation (the basis) is presented in Chen, Cuny, and Haugen (1995, henceforth CCH). According to CCH, the basis should be negatively related to the return volatility of the underlying instrument. CCH themselves find support for their model on data for S&P 500 contracts in the USA. However, since the data used by CCH in testing their model at least to some extent was familiar to them when developing the model, there is a need for a test on data that is completely independent of their data. The purpose of our study is to report the results of such a test. The data is for stock index futures on the European Options Exchange in Amsterdam. The period covered is 1991 through 1993. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the CCH model. An increase in perceived volatility of the underlying index will cause a drop in the basis, as well as an increase in the open interest on the futures market.

Suggested Citation

  • Berglund, T. & Kabir, R., 1995. "What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? : evidence from the european options exchange," Discussion Paper 1995-83, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:323234f7-ff9e-46bb-aa61-72a18cc7126a
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Nai-Fu & Cuny, Charles J & Haugen, Robert A, 1995. " Stock Volatility and the Levels of the Basis and Open Interest in Future Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 281-300, March.
    2. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-684.
    3. Hemler, Michael L. & Longstaff, Francis A., 1991. "General Equilibrium Stock Index Futures Prices: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 287-308, September.
    4. Richard, Scott F. & Sundaresan, M., 1981. "A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 347-371, December.
    5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    6. French, Kenneth R., 1983. "A comparison of futures and forward prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-342, November.
    7. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    9. Cornell, Bradford & Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1035-1045, December.
    10. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hietala, Pekka & Jokivuolle, Esa & Koskinen, Yrjö, 1994. "Short-selling restrictions, strategic stock holdings and index futures markets in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 19/1994, Bank of Finland.

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