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Explaining experience curves for LNG liquefaction costs: Competition matter more than learning




In this paper we seek to identify different driving forces behind the fall in LNG liquefaction unit costs. Our focus is on organizational learning including process specific R&D, but we also seek to account for autonomous technological change, scale effects and the effects of upstream competition among liquefaction technology suppliers. To our surprise we find that upstream competition is by far the most important factor. This may have implications for the future development in costs as the effect of increased upstream competition is temporary and likely to weaken a lot sooner than effects from learning and technological change. On the other hand, the increased competition could also spur more innovation, and induce a new drop in future unit costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mads Greaker & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2004. "Explaining experience curves for LNG liquefaction costs: Competition matter more than learning," Discussion Papers 393, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:393

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fontini, Fulvio & Paloscia, Lorenzo, 2007. "The impact of the new investments in combined cycle gas turbine power plants on the Italian electricity price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4671-4676, September.
    2. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.

    More about this item


    Learning curves; Mark-up pricing; LNG costs;

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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