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Are Predicted Lifetime Consumption Profiles Robust with respect to Model Specifications?

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Abstract

Structural models of lifetime labour supply and consumption require functional specifications of preferences as well as other assumptions that can be difficult to assess a priori. Misspecifications of the model might lead to biases in the estimates of preferences, that may influence the simulation results obtained from the model. In this paper we study to what extent predicted distributions of lifetime consumption are robust with respect to the specification of preferences. The simulation results show that simulated distributions of lifetime consumption strongly depend on the estimate of the intertemporal substitution rate as well as on the estimate of the time preference rate relative to the marginal interest rate net of taxes.

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  • Tom Kornstad, 2001. "Are Predicted Lifetime Consumption Profiles Robust with respect to Model Specifications?," Discussion Papers 308, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:308
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    1. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
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    3. Hubbard, R Glenn & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. "Social Security and Individual Welfare: Precautionary Saving, Borrowing Constraints, and the Payroll Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 630-646, September.
    4. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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