IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who will go down this year? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues


  • Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt
  • Bastien Drut


Contributing to the lively debate on closed leagues (North American model) versus open leagues (European model) in professional sport league, this paper aims at determining the drivers of promotion and relegation in the major European soccer leagues. Using a large and original dataset (for example: club’s link with a billionaire, club listed in the stock market, etc.) and logistic regressions, our results show that institutional factors matter to settle in the elite. It also indicates that open leagues system in European soccer championships is de facto very similar to closed leagues system. Furthermore, our forecasting model can be of interest for soccer investors or bookmakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt & Bastien Drut, 2009. "Who will go down this year? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues," Working Papers CEB 09-038.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:09-038

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: RePEc_sol_wpaper_09-038
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Wladimir Andreff, 2006. "New Perspectives in Sports Economics: A European View," Working Papers 0605, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    2. Bennett W Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults; The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stefan Szymanski & Tommaso M. Valletti, 2005. "Promotion and Relegation in Sporting Contests," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(3), pages 3-39, May-June.
    5. Thomas Hoehn & Stefan Szymanski, 1999. "The Americanization of European football," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(28), pages 203-240, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Economics of Sport; Organization of Sports Leagues; Soccer; Promotion and Relegation; Economic Forecasting; Regional Economy; Billionaires; Stock Market.;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:09-038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benoit Pauwels). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.