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Who will go down this year? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues

  • Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt
  • Bastien Drut

Contributing to the lively debate on closed leagues (North American model) versus open leagues (European model) in professional sport league, this paper aims at determining the drivers of promotion and relegation in the major European soccer leagues. Using a large and original dataset (for example: club’s link with a billionaire, club listed in the stock market, etc.) and logistic regressions, our results show that institutional factors matter to settle in the elite. It also indicates that open leagues system in European soccer championships is de facto very similar to closed leagues system. Furthermore, our forecasting model can be of interest for soccer investors or bookmakers.

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File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/54325/1/RePEc_sol_wpaper_09-038.pdf
File Function: RePEc_sol_wpaper_09-038
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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers CEB with number 09-038.RS.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:09-038
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  1. Wladimir Andreff, 2006. "New Perspectives in Sports Economics: A European View," Working Papers 0605, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
  2. Bennett Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults; The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Thomas Hoehn & Stefan Szymanski, 1999. "The Americanization of European football," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(28), pages 203-240, 04.
  4. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Stefan Szymanski & Tommaso M. Valletti, 2005. "Promotion and Relegation in Sporting Contests," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(3), pages 3-39, May-June.
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