The Impact of Interprovincial Migration on Aggregate Output and Labour Productivity in Canada, 1987-2006

Interprovincial migration has played an increasing role in Canada’s economy over the last three years. This report attempts to estimate the number of workers moving in and out of each province, and to estimate the total output gains due to interprovincial migration. It breaks output gains into two sources: gains due to increased employment, and gains due to re-allocation of workers between provinces with lower productivity to provinces with higher productivity. A record number of people, 370,791, equivalent to 1.14 per cent of all Canadians, migrated between provinces in 2006. This is 50 per cent more than in 2003. In 2006, the net output gains arising from interprovincial migration are estimated to be $883.1 million (1997 constant prices), or 0.074 per cent of GDP. Higher employment rates in provinces experiencing a net positive balance of interprovincial migrants were responsible for $398.0 million of the gains and higher output per worker in these provinces was responsible for $485.0 million. Interprovincial migration was also responsible for 2.82 per cent of real GDP growth over in 2006 and 1.27 per cent of real GDP growth from 1987-2006. Finally, interprovincial migration was responsible for 6.23 per cent of labour productivity growth in Canada in 2006 and 1.56 per cent over the 1987-2006 period.