Explaining the forward interest rate term structure
We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a Value-at-Risk like pricing. We find a striking correlation between the instantaneous FRC and the past spot trend over a certain time horizon. This confirms the idea of an anticipated trend mechanism proposed earlier and provides a natural explanation for the observed shape of the FRC volatility. We find that the one-factor Gaussian Heath-Jarrow-Morton model calibrated to the empirical volatility function fails to adequately describe these features.
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|Date of creation:||Sep 1999|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in Risk Magazine|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 6 boulevard Haussmann, 75009 Paris, FRANCE|
Web page: http://www.science-finance.fr/
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- Andrew Matacz & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 1999. "An empirical investigation of the forward interest rate term structure," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500047, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008.
"Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Carl Chiarella & Oh-Kang Kwon, 1999. "Classes of Interest Rate Models Under the HJM Framework," Research Paper Series 13, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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