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Born (or Not) under Weak Statehood:Fertility and Institutional Shocks in Mexico

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  • María Florencia Ruiz

    (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andrés)

Abstract

This paper examines how state-led institutional shocks in low-capacity settings can shape demographic behavior. I analyze two Mexican case studies in which the state sought to consolidate control and reassert authority: the 1992 ejido land-titling reform and President Calderón’s militarized anti-narcotics campaign. I use a difference-in-differences design for the former and a close-elections regression discontinuity for the latter, where narrow PAN victories proxy intensified anti-drug enforcement, to estimate causal effects on conception rates. Conception rates fall significantly in response to both shocks—roughly 1–2% for land titling and about 10% following narrow PAN wins—underscoring that institutional change can influence demographic behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • María Florencia Ruiz, 2026. "Born (or Not) under Weak Statehood:Fertility and Institutional Shocks in Mexico," Young Researchers Working Papers 21, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Mar 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:sad:ypaper:21
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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