When Did The Smart Money in Enron Lose Its' Smirk?
The Enron Corporation went from a $65 billion dollar market capitalization to bankruptcy in just 16 months. Using statistical techniques for extracting the implied probability distributions built into option prices, I examine the market's expectation of Enron's risk of collapse. I find that the "smart money" remained far too optimistic about the stock until just weeks before their bankruptcy filing.
|Date of creation:||25 Sep 2002|
|Publication status:||Published in Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 27, 2006, 365-82|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: New Jersey Hall - 75 Hamilton Street, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-1248|
Phone: (732) 932-7363
Fax: (732) 932-7416
Web page: http://economics.rutgers.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998.
"Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, 04.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bjerksund, Petter & Stensland, Gunnar, 1993. "Closed-form approximation of American options," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(Supplemen), pages 87-99.
- Bates, David S, 1991. " The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
- Kuldeep Shastri & Kulpatra Wethyavivorn, 1987. "The Valuation Of Currency Options For Alternate Stochastic Processes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 10(4), pages 283-293, December.
- Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1999. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term Structure Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 211-239, June.
- Sanjiv R. Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1998. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term-Structure Perspective," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-024, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "The Importance of the Loss Function in Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-45, CIRANO.
- Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. " Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-320, June.
- Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)