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The Welfare Cost of Expected and Unexpected Inflation

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  • Zhe Li

    (University of Toronto)

  • Miquel Faig

    (University of Toronto)

Abstract

The monetary search model by Lagos and Wright (2005) is extended with imperfect information about nominal shocks à la Lucas (1972 and 1973). This framework is useful to estimate the welfare costs of expected and erratic inflation because it provides an avenue to identify the transactions affected by monetary shocks and how tolerant individuals are to the fluctuations of output in these transactions. We find that the welfare gain of eliminating the United States monetary business cycle observed from 1892 to 2005 is 0.01 percent of GDP while the welfare gain of reducing the observed average rate of inflation to the Friedman rule is 0.26 per cent of GDP, that is almost two orders of magnitude higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhe Li & Miquel Faig, 2007. "The Welfare Cost of Expected and Unexpected Inflation," 2007 Meeting Papers 125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wallace, Neil, 1997. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Changes in Money in a Random-Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1293-1307, December.
    2. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2005. "Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 175-202, January.
    3. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    4. Irina A. Telyukova & Randall Wright, 2008. "A Model of Money and Credit, with Application to the Credit Card Debt Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 629-647.
    5. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Heterogeneous Information and the Benefits of Public Information Disclosures (October 2005)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 283, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Katzman, Brett & Kennan, John & Wallace, Neil, 2003. "Output and price level effects of monetary uncertainty in a matching model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 217-255, February.
    7. Miquel Faig & Belén Jerez, 2007. "Precautionary Balances and the Velocity of Circulation of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 843-873, June.
    8. Adam, Klaus, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 267-301, March.
    9. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
    13. King, Robert G, 1982. "Monetary Policy and the Information Content of Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(2), pages 247-279, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96 Elsevier.
    2. Tsz-Nga Wong & Pierre-Olivier Weill & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2015. "Long-Run and Short-Run Effects of Money Injections," 2015 Meeting Papers 793, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill & Tsz-Nga Wong, 2015. "Working through the Distribution: Money in the Short and Long Run," NBER Working Papers 21779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Liang Wang, 2016. "Endogenous Search, Price Dispersion, and Welfare," Working Papers 201616, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    5. Wang, Liang, 2016. "Endogenous search, price dispersion, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 94-117.

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