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Why Do Economists Disagree About Policy? The Roles of Beliefs About Parameters and Values

Author

Listed:
  • Victor R. Fuchs

    (Stanford University)

  • Alan B. Krueger

    (Princeton University)

  • James M. Poterba

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This paper reports the results of surveys of specialists in labor economics and public economics at 40 leading research universities in the United States. Respondents provided opinions of policy proposals; quantitative best estimates and 95% confidence intervals for economic parameters; answers to values questions regarding income redistribution, efficiency versus equity, and individual versus social responsibility; and their political party identification. We find considerable disagreement among economists about policy proposals. Their positions on policy are more closely related to their values than to their estimates of relevant economic parameters or to their political party identification. Average best estimates of the economic parameters agree well with the ranges summarized in surveys of relevant literature, but the individual best estimates are usually widely dispersed. Moreover, economists, like experts in many fields, appear more confident of their estimates than the substantial cross-respondent variation in estimates would warrant. Finally, although the confidence intervals in general appear to be too narrow, respondents whose best estimates are farther from the median tend to give wider confidence intervals for those estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor R. Fuchs & Alan B. Krueger & James M. Poterba, 1997. "Why Do Economists Disagree About Policy? The Roles of Beliefs About Parameters and Values," Working Papers 768, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:indrel:389
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    Cited by:

    1. Barua, Rashmi, 2014. "Intertemporal substitution in maternal labor supply: Evidence using state school entrance age laws," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 129-140.
    2. Duane Windsor, 2006. "Corporate Social Responsibility: Three Key Approaches," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 93-114, January.
    3. Madeline Zavodny, 1998. "Why minimum wage hikes may not reduce employment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 2), pages 18-28.
    4. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2004. "Advising Policymakers through the Media," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 395-406, October.
    5. Bruno S. Frey, 2000. "Was Bewirkt die Volkswirtschaftslehre?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 5-33, February.
    6. Thakor, Anjan & Boot, Arnoud, 2003. "The Economic Value of Flexibility When There is Disagreement," CEPR Discussion Papers 3709, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Ruud Mooij, 2005. "Will Corporate Income Taxation Survive?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 277-301, September.
    8. Wachs, Martin, 2003. "A Dozen Reasons for Raising Gasoline Taxes," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2000f8t0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    9. Bruno Frey, 2006. "How Influential is Economics?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 295-311, June.
    10. Jane Gravelle & Kent Smetters, 2001. "Who Bears the Burden of the Corporate Tax in The Open Economy?," NBER Working Papers 8280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor economics; public economics;

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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