IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/98468.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Mechanism of Recession that Accompanies Persistent Pareto Inefficiency

Author

Listed:
  • Harashima, Taiji

Abstract

Recessions are generated by various shocks. In particular, if fundamental shocks change the steady state, severe recessions will be generated. In this paper, I show that when such a shock occurs, it is possible for households to rationally select a Nash equilibrium consisting of a Pareto inefficient transition path to the new steady state in an economy in which households behave according to a procedure that is not based on the expected utilities discounted by the rate of time preference. They select this path because they are non-cooperative and risk averse and want to reach what I call the “maximum degree of comfortability” or MDC. The MDC mechanism behind choosing a Pareto inefficient path is basically the same as that in an economy in which households behave according to the usually assumed procedure based on the rational expectations hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "A Mechanism of Recession that Accompanies Persistent Pareto Inefficiency," MPRA Paper 98468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98468/1/MPRA_paper_98468.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    2. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 31-54, February.
    4. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "A More Realistic Endogenous Time Preference Model and the Slump in Japan," Macroeconomics 0402015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2004.
    5. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, May.
    6. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," RCER Working Papers 522, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    7. Robert A. Becker, 1980. "On the Long-Run Steady State in a Simple Dynamic Model of Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Households," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(2), pages 375-382.
    8. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    9. Harashima, Taiji, 2010. "Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population," MPRA Paper 22521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    11. Harashima, Taiji, 2009. "Depression as a Nash Equilibrium Consisting of Strategies of Choosing a Pareto Inefficient Transition Path," MPRA Paper 18953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harashima, Taiji, 2017. "Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?," MPRA Paper 78053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Do Households Actually Generate Rational Expectations? “Invisible Hand” for Steady State," MPRA Paper 88822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "Why Is Risk Aversion Essentially Important for Endogenous Economic Growth?," MPRA Paper 101011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    5. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "A Pareto Inefficient Path to Steady State in Recession," MPRA Paper 93216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2016. "A Theory Of Deflation: Can Expectations Be Influenced By A Central Bank?," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 98-145.
    7. Guse, Eran A., 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 42-57, May.
    8. Harashima, Taiji, 2015. "Bubbles, Bluffs, and Greed," MPRA Paper 64361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:wvu:wpaper:09-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Guse, Eran A., 2008. "Learning in a misspecified multivariate self-referential linear stochastic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1517-1542, May.
    11. Harashima, Taiji, 2014. "Time Preference Shocks," MPRA Paper 60205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Harashima, Taiji, 2024. "Numerical Simulation of Economic Depression," MPRA Paper 120508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Harashima, Taiji, 2016. "The Cause of the Great Recession: What Caused the Downward Shift of the GDP Trend in the United States?," MPRA Paper 69215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Eran Guse, 2004. "Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 99, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "A Theory of Inflation: The Law of Motion for Inflation under the MDC-based Procedure," MPRA Paper 94100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Harashima, Taiji, 2022. "Numerical Simulations of Reaching a Steady State: No Need to Generate Any Rational Expectations," MPRA Paper 115335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "The Correlation between Time Preference and Incomes Is Spurious: They Are Bridged by Fluid Intelligence," MPRA Paper 96756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mellár, Tamás, 2010. "Válaszút előtt a makroökonómia? [Does macroeconomics face a dilemma?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 591-611.
    20. Harashima, Taiji, 2021. "The Root Cause of Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 110010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic fluctuation; MDC-based procedure; Pareto inefficiency; Rational expectations hypothesis; Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.