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Egyptian Agricultural Exports Competitiveness

Author

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  • Soliman, Ibrahim
  • Bassiony, Hala

Abstract

The study dealt with the competitiveness of Egypt’s agricultural exports for the major commodity groups: Meat and meat preparations, Dairy products and bird eggs, Cereals and cereals preparations, Vegetables and Fruits, Sugar, sugar preparations and honey, Feeding stuff of animals, Beverages, Tobacco, Oils and fats, and Textile fiber and their waste. The study has not restricted the estimated measure of the competitiveness to only the classical Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA), it applied the other elaborated indices, in order to avoid unfavorable conclusions due to policy distortions and/or the export (supply) pattern and the Import (demand) pattern of the specified commodities. The relative export advantage index, [Ln(RXA)], results coincided with the RCA results in all food groups, which means that the “policy induced distortions” had the same impact on all studied food groups. The RTA (Relative Trade Advantage) and RC (Revealed Competitiveness) indices consist with the real world economic phenomenon of two ways trade, i.e. the price and quantity differences of exports and imports. If exports share in the world market either surpassed much the imports, due to the price (quality), quantity (magnitude), or if both were too small (the case of oils and fats) then the results of RTA and RC would be quite different but more reliable than RCA. The study provided evidences for such conclusion. It seems that RC gives the most reliable results, as it considers the resultant from both values of exports and the percent of imports covered by the exports. Thereof, RC introduced vegetables and fruits to the front of competitiveness of Egypt's exports, as such group showed the highest value of exports and the second order of the (Exports/Imports) %. It was followed by textiles and fiber crops at the second order of the exports value but the first order with respect to (Exports/Imports) %. Although the exports value of beverages group came at the fourth order after cereals and preparations, dairy products and Eggs and sugar products, it surpassed much all of them as (Exports/Imports) %, which was around 168%, while it was 20%, 18% and 5% for the other three groups. Thereof, both RTA and RC ranked sugar products as number 4 with respect to the comparative advantage. The analysis showing that the (Exports/Imports)% is the dominant criteria in ranking the agro-food groups according to the competitiveness and that RC is the most sensitive index, particularly when we go gradually down to the agro-food groups with smaller and smaller export values. Therefore, it looks reasonable, to see dairy products (Exports/Imports) of about 18% comes number 5 followed by cereals of (Exports/Imports)% around 5%, where RTA, as it gives more importance to the volume of exports, ranked them in an opposite order. The best -fitted ARIMA model applied for Egyptian Fruits and Vegetables Exports was (0, 1, 1). Forecasting results implies that the comparative export advantage of Egyptian Fruits and Vegetables to the world market seems to decrease over the forthcoming decade. The best-fitted ARIMA model applied for Egyptian Textile and Fiber Exports was (0, 0, 1). Forecasting results implies that the comparative export advantage of Egyptian textiles and fiber crops to the world market seems to decrease over the forthcoming decade. The best-fitted ARIMA model applied for Egyptian Sugars and Honey exports was (1, 1, 2). Forecasting results implies that the comparative export advantage of Egypt in Sugar and Honey (Sugar processed products) to the world market seems to increase slightly over the forthcoming decade, with moderate fluctuations

Suggested Citation

  • Soliman, Ibrahim & Bassiony, Hala, 2012. "Egyptian Agricultural Exports Competitiveness," MPRA Paper 66820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66820
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hatab, Assem Abu, 2009. "Performance of Egyptian Cotton Exports in International Market," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 22(2), July.
    2. Luca DE BENEDICTIS & Massimo TAMBERI, 2002. "A note on the Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage," Working Papers 158, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Juergen Donges & James Riedel, 1977. "The expansion of manufactured exports in developing countries: An empirical assessment of s upply and demand issues," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 113(1), pages 58-87, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hatab, Assem Abu & Nsabimana, Aimable, 2016. "A Dynamic Analysis of Egyptian Orange Exports to Russia: A Co-integration Analysis," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2), June.
    2. Soliman, Ibrahim & Mashhour, Ahmed, 2014. "Techno-Economic Factors Affecting Genetic Investment in Dairy Cattle in Egypt," MPRA Paper 66777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Unknown, 2014. "The new EU agricultural policy - continuation or revolution?," Multiannual Program Reports 179498, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Egypt; EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS; EGYPTIAN EXPORTS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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