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The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction

  • Bazhanov, Andrei
  • Vyscrebentsev, Alexei

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of the nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Given alternate criteria we compare the dynamics of extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We compare simulated dynamics to data on recoverable oil reserves for recent years.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/479/1/MPRA_paper_479.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15117/1/MPRA_paper_15117.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 479.

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Date of creation: 18 Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:479
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  1. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-74, December.
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