Effets Non Linéaires de l'Inflation sur la Croissance dans l'UEMOA
[Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Growth in the WAEMU]
The monetary policy conducted by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) faces many challenges, including the need to fight against inflation, which is driven mainly by the volatility of commodity prices on international markets. It is also fall to common criticisms about the lack of economic growth objective in her mandate as developing countries central bank in among the poorest in the world. It therefore not immune to reflection on the existence of a dilemma "inflation-growth" it would, consciously or unconsciously involved. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the existence of a non-linear relationship between inflation and the economic growth within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and to determine the inflation threshold at which a trade-off between inflation and growth is effective. From a threshold effects dynamic panel model, the study shows that the optimal level of inflation in the WAEMU zone is 8.08%. This result raises the question of the relevance of the standard deduction of 3% under the convergence criteria of the WAEMU zone. In addition, the inclusion of such a result is likely to help the BCEAO in the definition and conduct of monetary policy.
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- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
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- Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 2004. "Bilan de l'intégration monétaire dans l'UMOA," Working Papers 200418, CERDI.
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- Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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