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Severe Loss Probabilities in Portfolio Credit Risk Models

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Listed:
  • Babbs, Simon H
  • Johnson, Andrew E

Abstract

We derive explicit sharp bounds on the distribution of the number of defaults from a pool of obligors with common probability of default and default correlation. These bounds are extremely wide, implying that default probabilities and default correlations only very loosely determine probabilities of severe portfolio losses. Our results quantify and thereby reinforce Gordy’s (2002) statement that “Capital decisions ... depend on higher moments”.

Suggested Citation

  • Babbs, Simon H & Johnson, Andrew E, 1999. "Severe Loss Probabilities in Portfolio Credit Risk Models," MPRA Paper 22929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jan 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22929
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    2. Frey, Rudiger & McNeil, Alexander J., 2002. "VaR and expected shortfall in portfolios of dependent credit risks: Conceptual and practical insights," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1317-1334, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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